2 FTSE 100 shares that could outperform this year regardless of geopolitics

Jon Smith notes the volatile market but explains how to pick FTSE 100 shares that can be fairly insulated to the external geopolitical winds.

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The geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly. The situation in the Middle East highlights that it is hard to keep up with the ongoing developments. Despite this, there are FTSE 100 shares that can be resilient in the current global environment, given their business operations. Here are two that are worth pointing out for investors looking for somewhere to shelter.

A consistent track record

First up is GSK (LSE:GSK). The global pharma giant is up 57% over the past year and 10% so far in 2026, despite recent market turmoil.

If the share price performance wasn’t enough to prove the company can do well even during volatile times, the business model should. It sells essential medicines and vaccines, so demand doesn’t fall during recessions or geopolitical shocks. Healthcare demand is structurally rising, primarily due to ageing populations the world over.

At the same time, it’s investing heavily in new products. Recent trading updates showed a strong pipeline in areas like HIV, oncology, respiratory and others. This should act to future-proof the company, as medical advances continue to play out.

From a valuation perspective, I don’t believe it’s overvalued. In fact, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.19, it’s well below the FTSE 100 average of 17.6. Therefore, it could be considered a value play along with its defensive attributes.

In terms of risks, it’ll always be at the mercy of the respective regulators around the world. If sentiment changes and certain drugs don’t get approved, it could present costly mistakes for the company.

UK-centric

Another firm to consider is J Sainsbury (LSE:SBRY). So far this year, the stock is up 3%, and up 48% over the past year. I’d argue that food retail is one of the most non-discretionary items for any consumer. No matter what happens with global wars or a struggling UK economy, people need to eat.

That puts supermarkets like Sainsbury’s in the same defensive bucket as GSK, but arguably even more so due to the frequent, habitual spending of foodstuffs. Further, Sainsbury’s revenue is overwhelmingly UK-based, with supply chains that are more localised than global industrial firms. So even though it may experience some supply chain disruption due to the conflicts, it is not as large as other sectors.

Importantly, the firm competes across price tiers (including things like Aldi price-matching strategies). It has its own strong-brand ranges, which offer higher profit margins than branded goods.

When I add it all together, I think the company could be considered by investors. Of course, the supermarket space is very competitive. It operates on low profit margins, meaning that only a relatively small cost increase can hurt the overall business. But even with this, I still think the outlook for the coming year is net positive.

Jon Smith has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended GSK and J Sainsbury Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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