A while back, I began purging my portfolio of companies that I thought could be negatively impacted by the GLP-1 weight-loss revolution, including FTSE 100 stock Diageo. The others were McDonald’s, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Greggs.
All these shares except McDonald’s have lost more than a third of their value since January 2025!
Now, I’m not saying GLP-1s are the only reason why these shares have struggled. Weak consumer spending isn’t helping any of them, while Diageo is facing changing alcohol consumption patterns among younger generations.
Nevertheless, weight-loss drugs are clearly not helping sentiment for such stocks. So I don’t regret selling them.
But I still hold one FTSE 100 share that I fear might also be hit in future. What should I do?
A strong performer
The Footsie stock I’m referring to is Coca-Cola HBC (LSE:CCH). This is a major bottler for Coca-Cola, with operations across 29 countries in Europe and parts of Africa.
As well as sparkling drinks brands like Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, and Schweppes, the company distributes energy drinks for Monster Beverage. It also sells Costa Coffee and Caffè Vergnano products, as well as various waters, juices, and snacks in some markets.
Sales and earnings growth have been strong for years, helping drive a 175% gain in the share price over the past decade. The stock is up 40% in just 12 months.
The concern
But as everyone likely knows by now, people taking GLP-1 medications experience suppressed cravings for certain food and drinks.
According to a study by Cornell University and consumer insights group Numerator, soft drinks consumption is affected the most among those taking the drugs. Then coffee, energy drinks and juices, followed by alcohol and water.
Impact of GLP-1 on beverage consumption after six months
| Category | Average annualised impact (%) |
|---|---|
| Soft drinks | -7% |
| Coffee and energy drinks | -4% |
| Juices | -4% |
| Alcohol | -1.4% |
| Water | -0.5% |
Today, only a small minority of people in developed economies are taking these medications due to cost. However, patents on semaglutide — the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk‘s Wegovy — are set to expire in several countries this year.
This means other drugmakers will then be free to produce and sell far cheaper versions, including in some of Coca-Cola HBC’s high-growth emerging markets (like Nigeria).
Soft drinks, coffee and energy drinks form the backbone of the firm’s portfolio. So there’s arguably risk here if there’s a sudden, cheap influx of weight-loss drugs across both developed and developing markets.
My view
Despite this theoretical threat, I’m not worried enough yet to throw in the towel. Because in parts of Africa and Eastern Europe, per capita consumption of branded beverages remains very low. So I still see a solid long-term growth opportunity here.
In reality, GLP-1 adoption is unlikely to reach high levels in emerging economies any time soon. In the meantime, the company is pivoting toward more low- and no-sugar drink options to accommodate rising GLP-1 users.
Moreover, research indicates that many users discontinue these drugs within a year, then often return to previous consumption habits.
Finally, the valuation doesn’t look overstretched here. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 15.8 versus more than 20 for Greggs and Diageo a while back. So the starting valuation is lower, which could provide some level of support even if GLP-1 fears emerge.
Throw in a 3% forecast dividend yield, and reckon Coca-Cola HBC is still worth considering for a diversified Stocks and Shares ISA.
