I asked ChatGPT whether I should buy this US quantum growth stock. Here’s what it said…

Dr James Fox takes a closer look at a growth stock with exposure to the fast-growing quantum computing sector. Is it worth investing in?

| More on:
Young female business analyst looking at a graph chart while working from home

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

SkyWater Technology (NASDAQ:SKYT) is a US-based semiconductor foundry operating at a time when domestic chip manufacturing has become strategically important. These sectors are not necessarily surging, but its exposure to the quantum market positions it as something of a growth stock.

So I asked ChatGPT whether I should buy it. And the answer was useless… so I just researched the stock myself.

A national leader

The company provides wafer services and advanced manufacturing support for customers in defence, aerospace, and emerging computing markets, including quantum technologies. Recent financial results and strategic developments have materially changed the scale and visibility of the business.

The most significant development has been the acquisition of the Fab 25 manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas. This transaction expanded SkyWater’s production capacity and increased its share of the US 200mm foundational semiconductor foundry market from around 4% to around 17%.

As a result, the company’s now the largest exclusively US-owned pureplay foundry, strengthening its role within domestic and government-aligned supply chains. That’s certainly a good position to hold when you’re serving industries like defence.

This expansion was clearly reflected in the company’s third-quarter results. Revenue reached $150.7m, up 61% year on year and 155% sequentially.

Nearly $87m of the quarter’s revenue came from wafer services at the Texas facility, which exceeded management expectations. Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 24.6%, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $25.8m.

For the quarter, SkyWater also reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.24. Sadly, we can’t extrapolate that to a yearly basis — otherwise it would be trading around 16 times forward earnings.

Where’s the quantum bit?

Beyond traditional wafer manufacturing, SkyWater operates an Advanced Technology Services (ATS) segment. This division follows a ‘technology-as-a-service’ model, partnering with customers on development programmes rather than simple volume production.

During the last quarter, ATS revenue exceeded $54m, benefiting from customer-funded research activities and milestone payments. Management’s indicated that this model provides improved revenue visibility and supports working capital during programme ramp-ups.

And that leads us to its quantum computing-related work. SkyWater signed four new quantum customer engagements since the second quarter, supporting multiple hardware modalities.

Management said quantum revenues represented the strongest quarter to date for this activity and expects similar growth rates next year. However, management also said that quantum computing represents a “modest component of overall revenue”.

Quantum computing is something of a buzzword in 2025, and that does make me wonder if management’s just leveraging this exuberance to breathe some life into the share.

What the numbers tell us

Looking ahead, it guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $155m–$165m. For 2026, the company reiterated its baseline expectation of at least $600m in annual revenue and adjusted EBITDA of at least $60m.

That means it’s trading around 1.5 times 2026 sales. That’s roughly a 50% discount to the information technology sector average.

But profitability is the company’s issue. For 2026, it’s trading with an enterprise value (this is market-cap plus net debt)-to-EBITDA ratio of 17. That’s a 20% premium to the market.

For me, SkyWater Technology represents a business worth monitoring closely as execution progresses over the next several years. More data on this quantum segment will be key to that.

James Fox has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Senior woman potting plant in garden at home
Investing Articles

I asked ChatGPT for a FTSE stock that could help me retire early. It said…

Can an AI bot pick out a stock that could allow someone to swap the 9-5 for a life of…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s why new profit guidance just gave the Boohoo share price a 7% boost

The Boohoo Group share price climbed sharply after first-half results, and an upbeat year-end update has given it an extra…

Read more »

Investing Articles

UK growth stocks: a once-in-a-decade chance to get rich?

Harvey Jones sees three good reasons why UK growth stocks could power upwards from here. And he's backing one FTSE…

Read more »

Young woman carrying bottle of Energise Sport to the gym
Investing Articles

3 UK stocks riding retail strength — plus 1 promising recovery pick!

Three much-loved UK stocks are seeing benefits from strong retail growth, but one particular recovery candidate has our writer excited.

Read more »

Man riding the bus alone
Investing Articles

Down 85%, is this famous FTSE 250 stock set for a roaring comeback?

This FTSE 250 company makes iconic boots and is in the early innings of a turnaround attempt. Does the stock…

Read more »

Mature black couple enjoying shopping together in UK high street
Investing Articles

Buying 150 of these dividend shares unlocks a triple-digit passive income overnight!

Owning quality dividend shares is a fantastic way to unlock a passive income stream in the stock market. Here's one…

Read more »

A quiet morning and an empty Victoria Street in Edinburgh's historic Old Town.
Investing Articles

£500 buys 595 shares in this 7.3%-yielding REIT!

Got a small lump sum to invest? Here's one real estate investment trust (REIT) offering a chunky payout to start…

Read more »

DIVIDEND YIELD text written on a notebook with chart
Investing Articles

FTSE 100 dividend yield below 3% for first time since Covid

Mark Hartley examines historical dividend yield data to figure out what's going on with UK income shares -- should investors…

Read more »