Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has crossed the $200 per share mark. After being in a state of limbo for a couple of months, the stock appears to have its momentum back.
And that’s great for investors. I recently argued that Nvidia stock was getting cheap again as the share price has remained constant while analysts had upped their earnings expectations.
However, with all this in mind, and with Nvidia pushing towards being the largest stock in my portfolio, I thought it was time to revisit where the stock might be in one year.
So, I thought I’d start by asking ChatGPT for its thoughts. Quite frankly, I back my own opinion over artificial intelligence, but ChatGPT can be a good place to start. Here’s what it said.
Given the above and the current share price of $201 (at time of writing)… I estimate that Nvidia could reasonably trade in the range of $230–$260 in one year, in a base-to-bull scenario.
Base case: $220–$230 (aligning with consensus).
Bull case: $250–$260 (if AI infrastructure spending accelerates, supply constraints ease, and margins hold up).
Bear case: $170–$190 (if growth disappoints, regulatory/China export issues bite, or the broader chip cycle weakens).
Hard to argue
It’s hard to argue with those predictions. Collectively, they cover a fairly broad set of possibilities, with the base-case scenario reflecting a modest increase from today’s price.
It’s also clear that it’s using analysts’ forecasts for the stock. Analysts remain bullish on Nvidia, with a consensus 12-month price target of $220.95, implying around 10% growth from current levels.
Forecasts suggest more earnings expansion to come, with net profit expected to rise from $110.7bn in 2026 to $158.5bn in 2027. That’s a jump of more than 40%.
Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from $4.50 to $6.50, reflecting an estimated long-term annual growth rate of 33.6%.
Dividend payments are not anticipated, as Nvidia continues to prioritise reinvestment into AI infrastructure and product development.
Notably, analysts have revised their expectations higher over the past quarter, demonstrating improving sentiment around the company’s data-centre momentum and continued dominance in high-end GPU markets.
There is, of course, some consideration for rising competition, particularly from AMD’s chips and in-house AI accelerators developed by major cloud players. Export restrictions, supply constraints, or slower AI spending could also pressure margins.
What the data tells us
Nvidia’s forward valuation, while optically expensive, looks increasingly justified when viewed through a growth-adjusted lens. The stock trades on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 42.5, roughly 64% above the sector median, which understandably raises near-term valuation concerns.
However, that premium is underpinned by extraordinary forecasted growth, with analysts expecting earnings per share to rise more than 70% year on year and a three-to-five-year compound annual growth rate of 35.8%.
This growth outlook drives Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio to around 1.2, notably below the industry average of 1.8. This suggests the shares are cheap relative to their expected growth trajectory.
In other words, while Nvidia’s headline valuation may appear stretched on traditional metrics, the growth-adjusted metrics tell another story.
Personally, I continue to believe that Nvidia is worth considering.
