Investors have to be mad, daft or deluded to put their faith in the Ocado (LSE: OCDO) share price. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what I did this year. And yes, I plead guilty to all three of those charges.
If the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, then that applies here. I bought Ocado shares because they’d fallen sharply, thinking I might be getting a bargain. But that’s what Ocado shares do. Fall. Over and over. Expecting them to suddenly recover just because I owned them was mad.
Daft? I plead guilty to that too. I’d fallen for the hare-brained idea that it was okay to take a punt with a corner of my investment portfolio. Have a spot of fun with money I could afford to lose. Except I can’t afford to lose money and it’s no fun, seeing Ocado fall and fall again.
Can this stock ever recover?
So I plead guilty to the first two charges and yes, I was deluded too. The problem is, I still am. That’s because I’m still clinging onto my stake, hoping things will get better.
So far that’s been a losing bet for all concerned, with Ocado shares down 56.78% over 12 months and 75.19% over five years.
I bought them on 22 and 26 July this year. In one respect I’m lucky. I’m only down 25.11%. Long-term Ocado investors will gaze at that loss with envy. Slim consolation, I’m afraid.
One day this troubled stock could grow
I’ve got enough left to get out and invest the proceeds in a company that actually makes a profit, yet still I hang on. Deluded, moi?
Yet I’ve noticed that when confidence is up, and markets bounce, the Ocado price tends to bounce faster. Lately though, investors have been in risk-off mode, and Ocado is very much a risk-on proposition. That could change.
It’s had its moments. On 27 August, the board announced two new customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) for Australian grocer Coles were up and running after a two-year delay. The shares jumped for joy and jumped again on 19 September after its retail division posted a positive set of Q3 results.
I even toyed with the idea of averaging down by purchasing more Ocado shares. But happily, I resisted.
The share price spikes didn’t endure. Investors remembered that Ocado hasn’t made a profit in years, and won’t for several more, and backed off. It’s just not bagging enough new CFC contracts but has to pour cash into developing the tech. Could it be forced to tap shareholders for more cash through another rights issue? We can’t rule it out.
So I won’t top up my stake. That said, I’m not selling either. Sod’s law says the moment I do, the shares will go gangbusters. Or maybe that’s me being deluded again.
