The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price has been very volatile during 2025. Factors ranging from US tariffs right through to stalling EV demand have contributed to the wild swings. Yet the stock is up 5% in the last year, with some suggesting it could even outperform the US stock market poster child, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), next year. I turned to ChatGPT to see if it agreed with my opinion.
AI takes a side
My AI friend decided to pick Nvidia as the winner. It made a good point that the starting point matters. Nvidia enters 2026 as the clear profit centre of the AI build-out. Its revenues are already generating extraordinary free cash flow. In contrast, it flagged that Tesla still has many unproven ambitions, such as driving autonomy, robotaxis, and energy scale-up. As a result, ChatGPT feels the markets are far more sceptical of Tesla heading into 2026.
I think this is a valid view, but perhaps a little conservative. I’d argue that Tesla is the riskier option to own, but could offer the larger share price returns next year. Imagine if robotaxis really take off, or if the humanoid project progresses rapidly. I feel we already know most of Nvidia’s strategic direction for 2026. In contrast, Tesla could have a large positive surprise factor that ChatGPT doesn’t quite appreciate.
Earnings visibility
My concern for Tesla is actually based on earnings. The earnings are far more exposed to factors such as EV pricing pressure, Chinese competition, subsidy policy shifts, and consumer cyclicality. Recently, none of these points have helped with finances, and I’m worried it could be a similar story next year.
On the flipside, Nvidia earnings will be dominated by ongoing data-centre demand. I can only see this heading one way, with surging revenue remaining supported by hyperscalers, sovereign AI projects, and enterprise adoption. Even if growth decelerates, Nvidia’s pricing power means the earnings are less fragile than Tesla’s.
The bottom line
I think the battle between the two US stocks is a lot closer than ChatGPT makes out. Nvidia, up 35% in the last year, now has a market cap of $4.6trn. This could make it harder for the share price to increase, as the business is now so large. Tesla, with a market cap of $1.52trn, doesn’t have as much of a problem here.
The case could be made for either stock, but I’m taking Tesla. Even though it’s the riskier pick, I think it has the biggest potential to surprise me in a positive way next year. Each investor can make up their own mind about whether to consider buying either stock. But it’s important for everyone to have their own opinion and not just blindly follow ChatGPT.
