While share prices were soaring last year, almost every market pundit was bullish (positive) on the outlook for 2022. However, as this year has progressed and global stock prices have plunged, I’ve seen a huge increase in the number of bearish (gloomy) articles about equities. And, in the US at least, we’re already in the midst of a full-blown stock market crash.
The US is having a full-on stock market crash
As I write, only US stocks are currently in an actual bear market, which is where prices fall at least a fifth from a previous high. For the record, here’s how seven major market indexes have performed since the good old days of 2021/early 2022. I have sorted this table from largest to smallest percentage fall.
| Country/Region | Stock Index | 52-week high | Current level | Change | Change |
| US | Nasdaq Composite | 16,212.23 | 10,798.35 | -5,413.88 | -33.4% |
| US | S&P 500 | 4,818.62 | 3,674.84 | -1,143.78 | -23.7% |
| World | FTSE All-World Index | 500.97 | 388.53 | -112.44 | -22.4% |
| US | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 36,952.65 | 29,888.78 | -7,063.87 | -19.1% |
| Europe | STOXX Europe 600 | 495.46 | 409.07 | -86.39 | -17.4% |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 30,795.78 | 26,246.31 | -4,549.47 | -14.8% |
| UK | FTSE 100 | 7,687.27 | 7,151.82 | -535.45 | -7.0% |
As you can see, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index is the worst performer in my table, having lost a third of its value since its 22 November 2021 high. In second place is the US blue-chip S&P 500, having lost nearly a quarter of its value.
Taking third place is the FTSE All-World Index (-22.4%), which has been dragged down largely by the US stock market crash. Things are a little better in Europe and Japan, where shares have fallen between 14.8% and 17.4% from 2021/22 peaks.
The FTSE 100 has been a shelter in this storm
The stand-out star among major stock markets this calendar year has been the UK’s FTSE 100 index. The Footsie has declined only 7% since its 2022 peak on 10 February. One reason for this index’s resilience is it is packed with value shares trading on low valuations. Also, the FTSE 100 is heavily weighted to so-called ‘old economy’ stocks, including energy shares that have soared this year.
As it happens, this year has unfolded exactly as I predicted it would. In the second half of 2021, I repeatedly warned that US stock valuations were priced for perfection, so I expected them to fall steeply in 2022. Also, I repeatedly argued that the FTSE 100 and many of its constituent stocks were very undervalued, both relatively and geographically. As a result, my family portfolio stopped investing in US stocks in late 2022 and, instead, we used our cash to buy cheap UK shares.
I’m still keen on cheap UK shares
At present, the FTSE 100 trades on a forecast price-to-earnings ratio of around 13.9, for an earnings yield of 7.2%. It also offers a forward dividend yield of nearly 3.8% a year — more than double the S&P 500’s yearly cash yield of 1.8%. Currently, I worry about the war in Ukraine, soaring consumer prices, rising interest rates, and the risk of a global recession. Yet despite this, I will continue to buy cheap UK shares for their higher dividend income and potential capital gains!
