The Persimmon (LSE:PSN) share price has rebounded on Tuesday (10 March) after days of sustained pressure. It’s been boosted by a welcome double-whammy: signs that the conflict in the Middle East may be over soon, and the release of forecast-beating trading numbers for 2025.
At £13.04, Persimmon’s shares were last almost 7% higher on the day. The question is, can the FTSE 100 housebuilder keep climbing?
Strong performance
To answer that, let’s first look at those impressive full-year numbers released today. Persimmon’s revenues leapt 16% in 2025 to £3.3bn, as both completions and average sales prices rose solidly year on year. These were up 12% and 4%, respectively.
Analyst Mark Crouch of eToro said the numbers “suggest demand in the new-build market is holding up better than many feared, particularly as mortgage costs remain relatively elevated.” The builder’s underlying operating margin increased 20 basis points to 14.3%, which also helped underlying operating profit rise 17% year on year to £472.1m.
Persimmon’s strong forward sales gave investor hopes over the housing market an added boost. Its forward private forward sales position was last at £1.25bn, up 9% from this point last year. The company said it expects to record between 12,000 and 12,500 completions in 2026, up from 11,905.
As a consequence, it expects underlying operating profit for the full year “towards the upper end of current consensus.” Market forecasts range between £486m and £517m.
What could go wrong?
Persimmon’s been one of the newbuild industry’s best performers over the past year. But can it keep outperforming if the conflict in the Middle East becomes a prolonged one?
The housebuilder isn’t sure itself. It said today that “the impact of the Iran conflict on customer sentiment remains to be seen. Assuming the conflict with Iran and its impact is short, Persimmon is set to grow again in 2026.”
The problem is that uncertainty over the length and severity of the war looks set to persist. US President Trump said on Monday that “the war is pretty much complete,” giving Persimmon’s share price an extra boost. However, airstikes in the region continue from both sides amid mixed signals on US objectives and mission progress.
Are the shares worth a look?
If the war drags on, inflationary pressures could spike as oil supplies may remain disrupted. This means interest rates could stay higher for longer, impacting homebuyer affordability. The Bank of England is already tipped to keep interest rates unchanged at this month’s meeting when a cut had looked a dead cert.
Rising inflation could also choke off economic growth, putting further strain on buyer demand. Against this backdrop, I’m far from certain that housebuilder shares will rise in the coming weeks and months.
So should investors buy Persimmon shares or avoid them? As a shareholder myself, I think the housebuilder remains an attractive stock to consider. Over the longer term it has considerable scope to grow profits as the UK’s booming population drives new homes demand.
And at today’s prices it still offers excellent value. Its price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.2, well below the 10-year average of 1.9.
