What’s going on with the Anglo American share price?

The Anglo American share price dipped by 9% today. For answers I turned to the Q1 2022 production report.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

sdf

Anglo American (LSE:AAL) stock has been a standout performer in my portfolio in 2022, rising about 27% year to date. The metals and mining giant has benefitted from commodity price inflation due to supply constraints in the face of increasing demand. Given that commodity prices have been ticking higher for some time according to the S&P GSCI commodity index, today’s 9% slump in the Anglo American share price caught me off guard.

Figure 1. The S&P GSCI commodity index from May 2019 to now

The S&P GSCI has been moving higher since May 2020
Source: S&P GSCI

Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for this year to 3.6%. For reasons, it offered risks from the situation in Ukraine, tightening fiscal and monetary policy, and ongoing Covid-19-related drags on economic activity. That might be expected to hurt Anglo Americans’ share price. But, the IMF also warned of prices, which would include commodities, rising 7.4% this year, which should be good for the Anglo American share price.

It’s all about mining output

The IMF’s report came out yesterday. Anglo America shares dipped but not by much. Today’s slide is all about lowered output guidance. According to the company, its first-quarter 2022 production fell 10% year on year. The cause was cited as worker absences due to Covid-19, high rainfall affecting Brazilian and South African operations, and other operational challenges. Not all product lines suffered equally. Rough diamond production increased by 25% in Q1, and full-year guidance remained unchanged. Copper production fell 13%, but full-year guidance remains unchanged. Iron ore and platinum group metal production fell by 19% and 6%, respectively, and full-year guidance decreased. That is concerning, as these product lines accounted for 26% and 34% of group revenues last year.

Table 1. Selected Anglo American Q1 2022 production and full-year guidance for various products selected on their total revenue share

ProductQ1 2022 production increase/(decrease)Full-year guidance (previous guidance)Share of 2021 group revenue
Rough diamond25%30-33m carats
(30-33m carats)
13%
Platinum group metals(6%)3.9-4.3m ounces
(4.1-4.5m ounces)
34%
Copper(13%)660-750 kilo tonnes
(660-750 kilo tonnes)
15%
Iron ore(19%)60-64m tonnes
(63-67m tonnes)
26%
Metallurgical coal(32%)17-19m tonnes
(20-22m tonnes)
7%
Source: Anglo American Production Report Q1 2022

Another point of concern in the report was that cost of production has been increasing. Of course, increasing the prices of the items, in this case, metals and ores, a company is selling is a good thing. But, if the input prices for raw materials and energy are also increasing, then benefits from increased sales prices can be offset.

Anglo American share price

Those Covid-19 absences won’t go on forever. Disruptive weather is unpredictable, although it will become more frequent if climate change continues. That being said, rainy seasons don’t last all year. But overall, these are temporary blips and are unlikely to persist for multiple quarters.

But, Anglo American is and always has been a cyclical stock. When economic growth is improving, the Anglo American stock price goes up, and it falls when things take a turn for the worse. With all the risks to global growth and those inflationary fears, I would not call myself an Anglo American bull. But, I am not going to be selling now. I bought this stock for its dividends. My expected dividend yield is still enticing enough to suffer through a much larger slump than today.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

James J. McCombie owns shares in Anglo American. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

A pastel colored growing graph with rising rocket.
Investing Articles

Here’s how long it’s taken £1k of Nvidia stock to turn into £10k today!

Our writer explains how money invested in Nvidia stock less than three years ago has grown in value over tenfold…

Read more »

Thoughtful man using his phone while riding on a train and looking through the window
US Stock

3 red flags I’m seeing right now for the S&P 500

Jon Smith points out some concerns he has with the S&P 500 at current levels and picks one stock he's…

Read more »

UK financial background: share prices and stock graph overlaid on an image of the Union Jack
Investing Articles

UK dividend shares are outperforming US tech stocks!

UK dividend shares aren’t just for passive income investors. Over the last 12 months, they’ve been outperforming their US tech…

Read more »

DIVIDEND YIELD text written on a notebook with chart
US Stock

Here’s how much passive income an investor could make with £2k in Meta stock

Jon Smith looks at Meta stock from a different angle to normal, considering it as an option for an investor's…

Read more »

Young black colleagues high-fiving each other at work
Investing Articles

1 of my top UK shares is up 15% in a day! Is it still a buy for me?

Celebrus shares are soaring after strong full-year results. At a P/E ratio below 13, is it one of the best…

Read more »

Close-up of children holding a planet at the beach
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Jet2 shares 2 years ago is now worth…

Jet2 shares have surged in recent months and finally appear to be pushing towards fair value. Dr James Fox shares…

Read more »

piggy bank, searching with binoculars
Investing Articles

This FTSE 100 blue-chip could rise 26% in 12 months, according to brokers

While this FTSE 100 dividend stock has put investors through the wringer in recent years, some analysts see brighter skies…

Read more »

Businessman hand stacking money coins with virtual percentage icons
Investing Articles

A 3-step passive income strategy to target major wealth

Want to invest in the stock market to build up a passive income stream? There's no fiendlishly complex multi-step mystique…

Read more »