I quite like having a few shares like this at the core of my portfolio, but I don’t own any AstraZeneca. So why not?

The short answer is that I’m not comfortable with the firm’s valuation, nor its performance. It has failed miserably to provide any growth in recent years. The firm’s reported operating profit was $3,677m in 2017. That’s 55% less than the $8,148m reported for 2012.

The period since has seen many of the company’s main products lose patent protection and suffer falling sales. AstraZeneca’s former management had failed to invest in renewing its pipeline of new medicines, so current chief executive Pascal Soriot had his work cut out when he took over in late 2012.

In an effort to speed up the research and development process, Mr Soriot has spent a lot of money. The group’s net debt has risen from $1,369m at the end of 2012 to $16,185m at the end of September 2018.

A turning point?

He has always said that this would be a long process. But in November he said that the company had finally returned to sales growth, thanks to “new medicines and emerging markets”. Emerging market sales rose by 12% during the third quarter, US sales were 25% higher and China sales climbed 32%.

This increase translated into an 8% rise in product sales for the period, but profits were still down by 37% compared to the same period one year earlier.

The good news is that City analysts agree with Mr Soriot’s view that 2018 marked a low point. Consensus forecasts indicate that adjusted earnings are expected to have fallen by 21% to $3.38 per share last year, but will climb 10% to $3.76 per share in 2019.

I wouldn’t argue with this view. But AstraZeneca shares now trade on 19 times 2019 forecast earnings and offer a dividend yield of 3.9%. In my view, a lot of good news is already in the price. I think the shares look expensive, so I won’t be investing at this time.

A reliable performer?

One company that does tempt me is convenience food specialist Greencore Group (LSE: GNC). This firm’s main line of business is pre-packaged sandwiches, but it also produces a growing range of other ready-to-eat foods.

Greencore shares edged higher today after the company issued a positive trading statement. Management said that the group’s UK operations are performing as expected and that underlying sales rose by 5.8% to £363.5m during the period.

The group surprised investors last year by selling its US operations, which had previously been billed as a big growth opportunity. I’m not too concerned by this U-turn. The UK business is a proven performer with good market share and a track record of growth.

Selling the US operations left the group debt-free at the end of December. Earnings from the remaining business are expected to rise by 5% in 2019 and by a more wholesome 20% in 2020. With the shares trading on 12 times forecast earnings and offering a 3.1% yield, I think now could be a good time to take a closer look.

The post Why I’d avoid the AstraZeneca share price and buy this FTSE 250 dividend stock appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Roland Head has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AstraZeneca. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

With such low interest rates, I have no chance of saving for retirement using cash alone. That’s why the majority of my personal savings are invested in dividend stocks. These provide me with a much higher cash income and the possibility of capital gains.

Today I want to look at one dividend stock from my own portfolio and another that’s on my shopping list.

A tasty long-term buy?

Food producer Greencore Group (LSE: GNC) supplies many big retailers with takeaway sandwiches and ready meals. However, the firm’s performance has disappointed investors this year. A profit warning in March was followed by a surprise decision to sell its US business in October.

This strategic shift made me question my bullish stance on the stock. However, the latest figures from the firm have left me feeling fairly confident about the outlook for shareholders.

If we ignore the group’s US operations, which have now been sold, we see that sales in the UK and Ireland rose by 4.2% to £1,498.5m last year. Adjusted operating profit from these sales rose by 1.7% to £104.6m. Profits rose by less than sales, which means that profit margins fell. In this case, the numbers show a fall in operating margin from 7.2% to 7%.

I can live with this, in these circumstances. The group still generated an impressive 15.6% return on invested capital in the UK last year. Over the next few years, my hope is that a tighter focus on the UK business and plans for debt reduction will improve this figure.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Greencore’s adjusted earnings to rise by 5% to 15.8p per share in 2018/19. The dividend is expected to climb 7.5% to 5.99p.

These forecasts put the stock on a 2018/19 price/earnings ratio of 11 with a dividend yield of 3.4%. At this level, I believe the stock could be a good defensive buy for long-term investors.

A 6% stock I already own

One stock I already own is bus and train operator Go-Ahead Group (LSE: GOG). This company has had a lot of bad press as the operator of the troubled Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR) franchise, which includes Southern Rail.

Happily, the firm seems to be moving on from this troubled period. Management said that GTR delivered an “improved operational performance” during the six months to 28 November.

Go-Ahead has also announced a deal with the Department of Transport that will see the firm continue to run the GTR franchise until its 2021 expiry, in return for £15m of investment in “passenger enhancements”.

Overseas growth

Chief executive David Brown hopes to reduce the group’s dependence on the UK market by expanding internationally. Go-Ahead has already won bus and rail contracts in Germany, Singapore and Norway.

Mr Brown expects free cash flow to improve this year and City analysts believe the group’s dividend will be maintained. Consensus forecasts for the current year put the stock on a price/earnings ratio of 10, with a dividend yield of 6.2%.

I rate the shares as a buy.

The post Forget the cash ISA! I’d buy these FTSE 250 dividend stocks to protect my savings appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Roland Head owns shares of Go-Ahead Group. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

In fairness, the firm does seem to have been offered a good price for its US operations. The $1,075m (£817m) sale price equates to 13.4 times the group’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

Shareholders are set to receive a special dividend of 72p per share, although this depends on the group’s lenders agreeing certain refinancing arrangements.

Surprise U-turn

Greencore stock has been wobbly this morning, perhaps because investors are surprised at the group’s strategic U-turn. The US market was meant to be its big growth opportunity. Less than three months ago, management said it was focused on this “large and structurally growing” market.

Defensive stocks such as Greencore and FTSE 250 meat-packing firm Cranswick (LSE: CWK) have been popular with investors in recent years. But as I’ll now explain, I think these stocks could see further falls over the coming months.

Slower growth?

Greencore’s profit margins have been falling. In 2016/17, the firm’s UK operating margin fell from 8.3% to 7.4%. During the first half of the 2017/18 financial year, the firm’s UK operating margin was just 6.4%, down from 6.8% during the same period last year.

UK sales rose by 7.2% during the first half of this year, but falling margins meant UK profits only rose by 0.6%. I don’t want to overpay for a business that seems to be struggling to pass on rising costs to its customers.

The situation seems safer at Cranswick. Profit margins have improved in recent years and the group now generates an impressive 18% return on capital employed. However, earnings per share are only expected to grow by about 7% per year between 2018 and 2020. Is this growth business reaching maturity?

Too expensive?

With US growth stripped out and UK profit margins falling, Greencore’s forecast P/E of 13.5 seems ample to me.

I’m cautious about Cranswick. Given the modest forecasts for earnings growth, the stock’s forecast P/E of 20 and 1.9% yield seem quite demanding.

Cranswick’s share price has already fallen by 15% this month. Despite this, I think changing market conditions could mean that the share price is still too high.

Rising rates could hit dividend stocks

If interest rates continue to rise, then the yield on bonds — such as corporate debt — are also likely to rise. In turn, this could mean that stock investors demand higher yields from dividend stocks.

Although fast-growing firms may still attract high valuations, companies with more modest growth rates could see their shares fall.

I think there’s a risk that Greencore and Cranswick could be affected. To earn a 3% dividend yield from Cranswick would require a share price of less than 1,900p. That’s 35% below today’s price. At Greencore, a 3% yield would knock another 5% off the stock’s value.

I’m attracted to the defensive qualities of both companies. But I don’t want to pay too much for their shares, so I won’t be investing today.

The post 3 reasons why these FTSE 250 dividend-growth stocks could keep falling appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Roland Head has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

That said, although the FTSE 250 is very near its all-time high, there are a handful of mid-cap stocks that I believe will keep value investors happy with their sane valuations, high and rising dividend payouts, and impressive growth prospects.

Growing scale on both sides of the Atlantic 

First up is food manufacturer Greencore (LSE: GNC), whose shares trade at 12 times forward earnings and kick off a 3.1% dividend yield. The company’s valuation has come unstuck over the last few months as investors have turned negative towards its ability to bounce back from poor trading at its old US factory network.

However, I think these fears are overblown. Yes, the group’s old US factory network is plagued by low usage but management is reacting to this by wisely shuttering under-utilised factories and transitioning towards higher-margin, higher-growth work making branded food products for big names like Kraft Heinz.

This is a market the company now has access to thanks to its acquisition of Peacock Foods in late 2016 that has given it a giant, country-wide factory footprint and industry links into the lucrative American grocery market. And it’s this former Peacock business that offers enormous growth potential that could more than make up for poor trading at Greencore’s legacy US network.

Indeed, in the first nine months of this financial year Greencore US has posted 7.5% like-for-like growth thanks to a 19.4% rise in sales from the newly-acquired business. This was bested by the group’s market-leading position in UK convenience foods that led to an 8.4% sales uptick for this part of the business.

Looking ahead, I think Greencore is well-placed to come out of its recent troubles in good shape. Its core businesses in the UK and US are posting fantastic growth rates and margins should resume trending upwards as low-margin US and UK business lines are shut down. Plus, with net debt down to 2.5 times EBITDA at the end of March, its balance sheet is already improving following the Peacock purchase.

In my eyes, this means Greencore is an attractively-priced growth and dividend option for long-term investors.

Engineering higher returns 

I’m similarly minded towards engineering group Morgan Advanced Materials (LSE: MGAM). The company’s shares currently yield just north of 3% annually and trade at an attractive 14 times forward earnings.

The company, which is a leading designer and manufacturer of advanced carbon and ceramic products for end use in healthcare, energy and industrial markets among others, has spent the past few years investing heavily in ginning up increased growth by investing more in advanced R&D projects, exiting non-core business lines and slashing excess costs.

This strategy is starting to bear fruit with H1 organic sales up 7.8% in constant currency terms and underlying operating profits up 12.4%. With management making the right decisions to get the group on track for long-term results, I see good potential for the company to continue growing strongly as its industrial customers see an uptick in their own trading of late.

Add in a healthy balance sheet that allows for bolt-on acquisitions and I reckon Morgan is an interesting option for long-term, value-focused investors.

The post Two stellar growth dividend stocks that are looking far too cheap appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Ian Pierce owns shares of Greencore. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Morgan Advanced Materials. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

This resilience has helped the FTSE 100 retailer’s share price ascend 30% over the past 12 months, and Tesco is currently dealing at levels not seen since spring 2015.

Now the Hertfordshire business may have sprung back strongly in the face of tough market conditions, and for this Tesco — and more specifically chief executive and architect of this turnaround Dave Lewis — deserves all of the accolades.

But I for one refuse to get carried away and won’t be ploughing my own cash into the supermarket any time soon.

Supermarket sweeps lower?

Tesco sprang to fresh multi-year peaks earlier in April upon the release of pretty impressive sales numbers. Like-for-like revenues rose 2.2% in the 12 months to February 2018, a result which, assisted by a £594m boost from cost savings, helped supercharge pre-tax profit to £1.3bn from £145m in the prior year.

In a sign that it is confident of making further progress Tesco decided to pay a 2p final dividend, taking the resumed full-year payout to 3p.

But scratch a little deeper and suddenly Tesco’s investment case looks a little more fragile. Sure, sales may be picking up but this is mainly on the back of seized custom from the company’s Big Four rivals.

Indeed, the elephant-sized problem still hanging over the Footsie business is the rising might of Aldi and Lidl. Sales at these chains advanced 10.7% and 10.3% respectively in the 12 weeks to March 25, latest Kantar Worldpanel numbers showed. The firms are expanding to harness the exciting demand for their goods too, Aldi this month announcing plans to invest a further £57m to expand its Warwickshire head office to support its store rollout plan. And this threatens to put Tesco’s recovery increasingly under the cosh.

City analysts may be expecting extra earnings growth of 16% and 21% for fiscal 2019 and 2020 respectively. But I feel that the long-term picture remains extremely muddy and fraught with risk. And with Tesco boasting a far-from-compelling valuation, a forward P/E ratio of 17.2 times, I don’t think the supermarket is a particularly attractive pick right now.

Green machine

I would much rather splash the cash on another recovery play today: Greencore Group (LSE: GNC).

Now City analysts are expecting the convenience food giant’s earnings to drop 5% year-on-year in the period ending September 2018. However, it is expected to bounce back with a 9% profits advance in fiscal 2019. And I would consider a forward P/E ratio of 11 times as an attractive level upon which to buy into the business.

My optimism may seem a little misplaced particularly in the wake of March’s shock profit warning. Whilst conditions are tough in the US right now, however, the vast investment Greencore has made on the other side of the Pond still promises to deliver the sort of growth that eventually dwarfs that of its original UK operations.

Of course, further turbulence cannot be ruled out given Greencore’s current struggles. Having said that, the FTSE 250 firm’s low valuation should provide some protection against another shocking share price fall.

The post Why I feel FTSE 100 stock Tesco’s share price could plunge appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Royston Wild has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tesco. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

‘Shorting‘ is what happens when someone sells stock that they have borrowed from a broker on the belief that it will fall in price. Assuming this happens, the shorter will then purchase the shares back at a lower price and make a profit. It’s a risky business and something best left to experienced traders. Get it wrong and the losses are technically infinite.

Nevertheless, there’s money to be made by Foolish investors if predictions prove too pessimistic. With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at two of the most hated stocks on the market and question whether further falls really are inevitable.

Short squeeze ahead?

Holders of £1.1bn cap Greencore (LSE: GNC) have endured an awful couple of years. Priced around the 300p mark in April 2016, the international convenience food supplier’s shares have been on a downward trajectory ever since.

There was further pain in March. Despite announcing a restructuring of its US leadership team and the cessation of fresh production at its facility in Rhode Island to address operating losses, investors responded negatively to the news that adjusted earnings per share for the full year would be around 7% below previous expectations. 

With 15% of its shares currently being shorted, should we therefore expect a further drop? 

I’m not so sure. Looking ahead, the company expects decent revenue growth in the UK for the rest of the year, along with a “modest improvement in operating leverage“. The financial performance of its US operations is also expected to improve, even if currency headwinds and later-than-expected contributions from new business will impact on profit growth this year.

Since management now anticipates improved revenue and earnings from H1 of the next financial year, Greencore’s issues look fairly short term. Indeed, should the company surprise the market in a positive manner when it announces half-year numbers in May, I’d expect a ‘short squeeze‘ as traders scramble to close their positions.

Right now, Greencore’s stock changes hands for 11 times forecast earnings, suggesting a fairly decent margin of safety for prospective investors focused on the long term. The 3.5% yield is also fairly attractive.

Reduced margins

Wilmslow-based pet food and product retailer Pets At Home (LSE: PETS) is another company that has attracted shorters. With almost 12% of its stock currently being borrowed and sold, it appears that many remain sceptical of the company’s ability to maintain the kind of performance that saw it report a 7.2% rise in Q3 like-for-like revenues back in January.

They may have a point. The aforementioned rise in sales was largely the result of management’s decision to cut prices. A reduction in margins is never ideal, particularly if consumer confidence continues to stutter as a result of economic uncertainty.   

Nevertheless, I continue to believe that the company’s increasingly popular grooming and veterinary services make it a decent contrarian bet. While needing to remain competitive, it can also be argued that spending on furry companions is less discretionary than other purchases, thus making the retailer potentially more resilient than most. 

Priced at 12 times forecast earnings for the new financial year and offering a 4.8% yield, I think the market is a little too pessimistic on Pets At Home.  

The post Will these heavily-shorted stocks sink further in 2018? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Paul Summers does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

But while this has been painful for current shareholders, I believe contrarian investors may find an opportune moment to begin a position in the company at what appears to me to be a bargain valuation.

The cause of the matter

All things considered, Greencore’s profit warning earlier this month wasn’t all that terrible. Management estimates that its full year profits will now be between 14.7p and 15.7p per share, roughly 7% lower than analysts were expecting. On top of this, there was also a further warning about underutilisation at some of its legacy US manufacturing sites that will see the mothballing of one in Rhode Island that contributed a relatively minor 2% of US revenue last year.

In isolation, these two factors make the roughly 30% drop in its share price on the day of announcement seem a vast overreaction. And I believe it’s an overreaction, but disgruntled investors would also be forgiven for losing patience with the management team following continued problem at its old US facilities.

The future appears bright

However, looking out over the long term, I think Greencore is still in great shape. The company’s core UK business is growing by leaps and bounds as it cements its dominant position as the country’s foremost manufacturer of own-brand sandwiches, sushi and other food-to-go items for grocers. In Q1, sales from the UK side of the business were up a whopping 8.7% year-on-year, excluding the effects of a small acquisition, and up 9.2% at reported levels.

Then, in the US, the company finally has the scale, national reach and customer relationships to build a successful, profitable business, thanks to the acquisition of Peacock Foods. This part of the American business, which is now the far larger and core portion of the business there, is growing very nicely.

In Q1, overall American sales were up 5.1%, driven by a 7% increase in volumes as new contracts rolled in. And over the next two years there’s considerable further growth potential as the group has a bevy of potential contracts with consumer packaged goods firms in its pipeline. While management now expects these contracts to benefit the group starting in the first half of fiscal year 2019, rather than this year, they still sound confident in landing them.

Time to jump in?

And in the meantime, Greencore’s balance sheet is still in rude health. Net debt at year-end was 2.4 times EBITDA following the Peacock acquisition and the profit warning didn’t stop management from disclosing that they still expect leverage to reduce to around 2x by year-end.

With the business still generating considerable positive cash flow, the UK division delivering significant growth and the core US business well-positioned for long term growth, I see plenty to like about Greencore. And with its shares now offering a 4.28% yield based on last year’s 5.47p dividend and a valuation of only 9 times the lower-end of management’s EPS guidance, I believe other long-term investors may find now a great time to buy shares of Greencore, like I have.

The post Why I just bought shares of plummeting Greencore Group plc appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Ian Pierce owns shares of Greencore. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

But the firm’s growth-by-acquisition strategy has hit a sticky patch, and some will be wondering if the success story is coming to an end. Unless the market has a short-term change of heart, Micro Focus looks set to drop out of the FTSE 100 come the next reshuffle. 

The current problem stems from difficulties integrating HP Enterprise’s Software division, whose acquisition was completed in September 2017, and that’s hit the firm’s sales a lot harder than expected.

Bad fit?

As an ex-software developer myself, I was a little sceptical about the fit of the two companies’ businesses, with HP being a venerable behemoth and Micro Focus seen more as a nimble and more modern firm. And it’s starting to look like it might have taken on a poisoned chalice. 

Chief executive Chris Hsu’s departure after just six months also came as a shock.

Micro Focus was sitting on an adjusted net debt of $4.4bn at the halfway stage at 31 October, which is significantly more than its current market cap. For a company that’s been relying on an acquisition strategy that’s coming unstuck, that’s worrying.

Until recently I’ve been an admirer of Micro Focus, but I’m now fearing there will be more bad news before things get better, and I expect its mooted 7.4% dividend to be cut. For me, for now, Micro Focus is in bargepole territory.

Another crash

Convenience food manufacturer Greencore (LSE: GBC) suffered something similar, after issuing a profit warning on 13 March. In the days since, Greencore shares have slumped by 29%, and they’re down 55% over the past two years.

But unlike the problems at Micro Focus, I see Greencore’s troubles as being less deep and I can’t help feeling the sell-off has been overdone.

There are problems related to the under-utilisation of some sites in the US, and that’s led to a downgrade in the firm’s full-year EPS guidance. But it’s really only a modest reduction, with the earlier range of 15.7p-16.6p lowered to 14.7p-15.7p.

With the share price now down to around 131p, even the lower end of that guidance, 14.7p, still suggests a forward P/E multiple of only nine. On top of that, the forecast dividend of 5.9p per share would still be covered two and a half times, so I don’t see any immediate need to fear a cut.

Debt is key

Also, the share price drop has boosted the predicted yield to 4.5%, which I see as an attractive level.

My main caution, as so often, lies in the company’s debt levels. At year-end at 29 September 2017, Greencore was shouldering net debt of £519m, which was £187m worse than the same point a year previously.

That figure is a little over half the firm’s market cap, so it’s perhaps not that frightening. But it does amount to 2.7 times 2017’s EBITDA, and when that ratio gets above the 2 to 2.5 times range, I start to get twitchy.

Greencore could be a decent investment, but I see better alternatives out there with fewer red flags.

The post Should you snap up shares in fallers Micro Focus and Greencore Group plc? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Greencore. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Micro Focus. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.