Should we now pile into IDOX plc after crashing 25% today?

Roland Head explains what’s gone wrong at IDOX plc (LON:IDOX) and gives his verdict on the stock.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Shares of public sector software specialist IDOX (LSE: IDOX) fell by 25% this morning, after the firm issued its second profit warning in just two months.

Investor confidence in the stock won’t be helped by news that today’s warning appears to be the result of accounting errors. These have now been reported to the group’s auditors and will delay the publication of full-year results — due in December — until February.

What’s gone wrong?

The firm says that staff have identified some revenue items “that it does not consider should be recognised in the FY2017 results”. Removing these items from the 2016/17 accounts is expected to reduce earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from £23m to £20m.

The company says that sorting out these issues has been “complicated” by the “sudden absence” due to illness of the group’s chief executive Andrew Riley.

No information has been provided about the nature of the accounting problems, but one possibility is that revenue from multi-year contracts has been recognised too early. This is an area that’s caused problems for other service companies in recent years.

Buy, sell or hold?

Today’s news is a reminder of the old stock market adage that profit warnings usually come in threes. We’ve now had two warnings from the firm, leaving a number of questions unanswered.

Using the information in today’s statement, I estimate that full-year adjusted earnings could be around 3.1p per share. That would put the stock on a forecast P/E of 13, at current levels.

In my view this is still too expensive. I plan to review this stock again when management provides a full set of accounts and updated guidance for 2018/19. In the meantime, I’d rate it as a sell.

A value trap?

Earlier this year, I was bullish about African miner Petra Diamonds (LSE: PDL). But the firm’s situation has worsened considerably since then. I now believe this stock is in danger of becoming a value trap.

Petra Diamonds has been spending heavily on expanding its Cullinan and Finsch mines. This work is now largely complete and both mines are ramping up production. The problem is that spending on Cullinan has left the company with raised debt levels, just as its operations are being disrupted elsewhere.

Double whammy

In South Africa, Petra has experienced disruption from strike action at a number of its mines. Meanwhile sales of diamonds from Tanzania have been disrupted by a government crackdown on exports. This has affected several London-listed miners.

As a result, the group reported net debt of $613.8m at the end of September. That’s nearly four times last year’s adjusted EBITDA of $157.2m and has left the group at risk of breaching some of its banking covenants.

Brighter outlook for 2018?

Problems in Tanzania are receding and performance is expected to improve in 2017/18. Debt levels may fall without the firm needing fresh funding.

But Petra has already warned that industrial unrest and “the uncertain outlook” for its Williamson mine in Tanzania could hit performance over the coming year.

The stock currently trades on a 2017/18 forecast P/E of 7.7. In my view this modest valuation is high enough, given the financial risks facing shareholders. If Petra’s debt problems persist and cash runs short, these shares could have further to fall.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Roland Head has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Ice cube tray filled with ice cubes and three loose ice cubes against dark wood.
Investing Articles

Just released: our 3 top income-focused stocks to buy before April [PREMIUM PICKS]

Our goal here is to highlight some of our past recommendations that we think are of particular interest today, due…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is this the best chance to buy cheap FTSE 100 shares in a generation?

I want to buy shares when they're cheap, and sell... never, just keep taking the dividends. And the FTSE 100…

Read more »

Man putting his card into an ATM machine while his son sits in a stroller beside him.
Investing Articles

Could NatWest shares be 2024’s number one buy for passive income?

For those of us looking to earn some long-term passive income, how does NatWest's 7% dividend yield sound? It sounds…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£12K in savings? Here’s how I could turn that into £13K annual passive income

This Fool explains how investing a lump sum can help her build a passive income stream to enjoy in her…

Read more »

Aerial shot showing an aircraft shadow flying over an idyllic beach
Investing Articles

Here’s why Rolls-Royce shares are now set to fly over the £4 mark

Once again, Rolls-Royce shares are crushing the FTSE 100. Should I add to my holding of this stock at the…

Read more »

Investing Articles

1 under the radar FTSE 100 AI stock investors should consider buying

Our writer explains why this FTSE 100 pick could be a shrewd investment with its established experience of using AI…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Does the beaten-down Diageo share price make it a no-brainer buy?

Harvey Jones spent years waiting for the Diageo share price to look like good value, before finally buying it in…

Read more »

One English pound placed on a graph to represent an economic down turn
Investing Articles

8%+ yields! Should I buy these FTSE 100 income shares this month?

Christopher Ruane weighs some pros and cons of two FTSE 100 shares, both of which have a dividend yield over…

Read more »