Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock experienced a powerful move higher recently. Since late March, it’s surged from $165 to around $210 – a gain of nearly 30%.
I think it has the potential to go much higher in the medium term though. Here’s a look at how it could potentially rise to $284 in 2026.
Expect strong growth
Nvidia’s growth in the near term is likely to be very strong. We know this because hyperscalers such as Amazon and Microsoft have announced that they will be spending over $600bn on artificial intelligence (AI) capex this year alone. A large chunk of this is likely to find its way into Nvidia’s coffers. Because its AI chips are deemed best-in-class.
Another reason we know that growth’s likely to be strong is that CEO Jensen Huang recently told investors that the company is expecting a whopping $1trn in Blackwell (its current generation AI chip) and Rubin (the next generation chip) platform sales through 2027. To put this in perspective, the company’s sales last financial year were $216bn, so that forecast is huge.
A share price projection
Now, for this financial year ending 31 January 2027 (FY27), analysts expect the chip powerhouse to generate earnings per share (EPS) of $8.28 (versus $4.92 last year). That means at today’s share price of $210, we’re looking at a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 25.4 (which isn’t high at all, given the level of growth).
Next financial year however, analysts expect EPS of $11.20. So what if we take that EPS forecast and apply the same P/E ratio of 25.4? Well, we get a potential share price of $284. That’s about 35% higher than the current price.
In other words, assuming that Nvidia’s earnings multiple stays at roughly 25.4, the stock could rise significantly as investors start to anticipate earnings for FY28. With a bit of patience, investors could see fantastic gains.
Is it worth a look today?
Now, of course, there are no guarantees that earnings forecasts will be accurate – companies could reduce their spending on Nvidia’s chips (competition from companies like Amazon and Alphabet is rising). There are also no guarantees that the earnings multiple will stay the same for the rest of the year (it could fall if the market falls or investors start to anticipate less growth).
So my share price forecast could turn out to be way off the mark. However, I don’t think $284 is a crazy estimate. That’s because Nvidia’s actually lagged a number of other AI infrastructure stocks this year (AMD and Marvell are up more than 50% while Nvidia’s only up around 10%).
If it was to play catch up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it rise to near $300 (note that several Wall Street analysts have price targets of $300 or above).
Personally though, I’m targeting a share price of $250 first. That’s where I see the stock heading in the months ahead (assuming no market meltdown or major negative news).
Given my bullish forecast, I believe the stock’s worth considering.
