Finding the best shares to buy in a volatile market isn’t easy. But some of the greatest long-term returns have always been made when sentiment’s at its most fractured. And right now, Trainline (LSE:TRN) could be in this category.
With the stock trading near 240p, Trainline shares are now trading just over 40% below where they were at the start of 2025, with some institutional forecasts suggesting it could fall even further.
Yet there are some contrarian bullish voices projecting the share price to climb beyond 500p, potentially more than doubling the money of anyone who buys shares today.
So what’s behind this split in opinions? And could there really be an explosive growth opportunity here?
A powerful digital platform
As a quick reminder, Trainline’s the UK’s leading digital train and coach ticketing platform, operating across the UK and 45+ countries in Europe.
Think of it as the Booking.com of rail travel, gathering the ticket inventory from hundreds of operators all in one place to make it effortless for millions of travellers to compare, book, and manage journeys on the go.
The business model’s capital-light and high-margin. Revenue comes from booking fees as well as a growing suite of ancillary products such as hotels, insurance, and seat upgrades. And based on the firm’s latest trading update, EBITDA growth for its 2026 fiscal year (ending in February) is on track to land between 10% and 13%.
Why it could double… and what could stop it
The bull case for doubling rests with the company’s international expansion strategy. Europe’s rail market is enormous and, unlike the UK, still largely offline. As such, with limited competition, Trainline’s business-to-business platform seems to be gaining a lot of traction and winning new contracts at a pace. In other words, the company appears to be benefiting from a first-mover advantage in Europe.
But this is where things start to get murky. In its currently core market of the UK, Trainline’s facing a potentially existential threat from the government’s Great British Railway (GBR) initiative. The plan is to create a unified government ticketing platform that will directly compete with Trainline’s own solution.
With roughly 65% of net ticket sales coming from UK consumers, the threat of a government-backed alternative is a serious threat to Trainline’s dominant market position. And even if the company manages to protect its market share, this powerful rival will undoubtedly undercut its pricing power, squeezing long-term profit margins.
What’s the verdict?
Leadership has suggested the company could use its own technology to help run GBR itself, evolving the business model, and protecting its industry-leading status. But there’s no guarantee that this offer will be accepted, creating a lot of uncertainty about Trainline’s future in the UK.
For Europe, the opportunity remains undeniably exciting. But there’s still a long way to go before this part of the business grows into a dominant revenue driver. That’s why, personally, I’m staying on the side of caution and keeping Trainline on my watchlist.
But if the uncertainty surrounding GBR is resolved and Trainline’s successful in adapting, today’s attractive valuation could indeed make Trainline worth considering, I feel.
