£20,000 invested in FTSE heavyweight Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) a year ago would be worth £34,975 today, including dividends. That is a whopping 75% return over one year.
The surge was driven by a powerful rebound in iron ore prices and Rio’s ability to convert that into hefty cash flows for shareholders.
But despite this momentum, the shares still trade on modest earnings multiples. So, how much further has the rally left to run?
Key earnings drivers ahead
A risk for Rio going forward is its heavy capital investment programme. It means periods of lower free cash flow are possible as major projects move through construction and ramp‑up phases. Another is shifting demand through the commodities pricing cycle that may squeeze margins during bearish periods.
Nonetheless, analysts forecast medium-term growth of 8% a year, on average, which looks well supported by 2025 annual results.
Underlying EBITDA rose 9% year on year to $25.4bn (£19.2bn), underpinned by an 8% uplift in copper‑equivalent production and firmer cost discipline. Consolidated sales revenue increased 7% to $57.6bn, illustrating the contribution of higher copper and aluminium volumes alongside improving market premiums.
Net cash generated from operating activities rose 8% to $16.8bn, underlining its diversified portfolio and the early returns from major growth projects such as Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou.
Together, these drivers reinforce a clear route for sustained earnings growth ahead, in my view.
Share price gains in sight?
Comparisons of Rio’s key stock measures against its competitors suggest it remains undervalued.
For instance, its 15.4 price-to-earnings ratio is bottom of its peer group, which averages 36.5. These firms are BHP at 18.1, Vedanta at 19.5, Antofagasta at 34.4, and Griffin Mining at 74.1.
It also looks a bargain on its price-to-sales ratio of 2.7 compared to its competitors’ average of 4. And its price-to-book ratio of 2.5 against its peers’ average of 4.5 also looks cheap.
On these metrics, Rio continues to trade at a clear discount to its peer group — a gap that looks increasingly hard to justify, in my view.
Rising dividend income?
Rio’s 402 US cents (304p) 2025 dividend gives a current yield of 4.1% — well above the present 3.1% FTSE 100 average. These returns can go up or down, depending on share price moves and changes in annual dividends, of course.
However, analysts forecast Rio’s dividend will rise to 355p this year, 356.5p next year, and 365.1p in 2028. These would generate respective yields of 4.8%, 4.9%, and 5%.
So, my £20,000 holding in the firm would make me £12,940 after 10 years and £69,355 after 30 years. This assumes the 5% forecast yield and the dividends being reinvested back into the stock to harness the power of dividend compounding.
By the end of the 30 years, the total value of the holding would be £89,355 (including the original £20,000 investment). And this would make me an annual dividend income of £4,468.
My investment view
Given Rio’s strong fundamentals, huge cash generation, and valuations below its peers, I will buy more of the shares soon.
And I also have my eye on other undervalued stocks that pay even higher dividend yields.
For investors seeking dependable exposure to global commodities without paying premium multiples, I think Rio is well worth considering.
