While the FTSE 100 continues to climb higher, not all of its constituents have been so fortunate. Imperial Brands (LSE:IMB), for example, has dropped by almost 10% since early December.
Yet it seems that some investors are seeing this as a bargain-buying opportunity. According to AJ Bell, it’s among the most popular stocks investors are buying right now.
So, what’s behind the group’s share price tumble? And is this indeed a golden buying opportunity for my portfolio?
Why is the share price falling?
Often, when stocks move down in double-digits, there’s a single catalyst causing concern. But that’s not what’s happening with Imperial Brands. Instead, the downward trajectory of this tobacco stock seems to stem from a variety of factors, including:
- Resurfacing of investor concerns about regulatory uncertainty.
- Continued losses of the group’s non-combustible Next Generation Products (NGP).
- And a cautiously optimistic attitude to the group’s newly appointed CEO, Lukas Paravicini.
As a consequence, opinions about the business are currently a bit mixed. Some analysts see the current share price as great value, while others believe the long-term growth of its NGPs is already baked in.
So, with that in mind, it’s not too surprising to see some investors start taking their profits from the near-80% share price rally of the last two years.
Is this a buying opportunity?
Despite the uncertainty surrounding this business, there are quite a few exciting prospects on the horizon.
Having previously served as CFO, Paravicini knows the business well. And management has already outlined a £600m investment plan to make the business more agile, data-driven, and efficient, with plans to deliver up to £320m of annualised savings by 2030.
Depending on execution, that could mean Imperial Brands could continue delivering between £2.2bn and £3bn in free cash flow each year, even as its tobacco volumes continue to slowly shrink, supporting its generous dividend policy.
Pairing all this with a still underexploited market opportunity in Africa, it’s not hard to see why some investors have started viewing the recent share price pullback as a buying opportunity.
However, even a large-scale FTSE 100 business like Imperial Brands still has its weak spots. With governments pushing for stricter regulations and combustible sales bans, the clock is ticking on the group’s core product line. Its investments in NGPs show that management is fully aware and acting ahead of this regulatory and political threat.
However, as previously mentioned, these novel products have yet to turn a profit. And while losses are shrinking, the progress has so far been fairly slow. At the same time, it’s not the only tobacco business attempting to evolve.
For example, British American Tobacco has its own portfolio of competing vapes and oral nicotine targeting the same audience.
So, where does that leave investors?
The bottom line
While in the short-term Imperial Brands’ financials look robust, the long-term trajectory is still a bit of a question mark.
So, even for income investors who don’t mind the idea of investing in a tobacco business, this isn’t a stock I find tempting right now, even after the recent pullback. Instead, I think there are other far more exciting FTSE 100 dividend stocks to explore in 2026.
