2025 proved nothing short of a catastrophe for Greggs‘ (LSE:GRG) share price. It crashed 40% as — under pressure from weakening consumer spending in the UK — its growth credentials crumbled like a Cornish pasty.
Do City brokers think the FTSE 250 stock will keep falling, or do they predict a stunning recovery?
£19.98 price target
On balance, it’s pretty good news for holders of Greggs’ shares like me. Currently, 12 analysts have ratings on the baker, providing a healthy range of opinions. Their 12-month price forecast is £19.98 per share, up roughly 19% from today’s levels.
It’s important to remember though, that broker forecasts can often miss their targets. Indeed, few expected Greggs’ share price to crater as it did last year.
Could they be wrong again in 2026?
On the bright side
Like most City analysts, I’m largely positive that Greggs’ shares can recover strongly this year. As an investor and writer who studies the company closely, there’s lots of reasons to be hopeful of a rebound.
While consumer pursestrings remain tight, news coming out of the company has been more encouraging. In October, it announced “improved trading in August and September following heat-affected July“.
The baker also suggested its recent tie-up with Tesco has got off to a strong start. Roughly 820 of the FTSE 100 company’s stores now stock frozen Greggs’ products.
Can the company keep up the momentum though? With around 130 new stores targeted for this year — most of which are located in lucrative travel hubs — and its drive into the delivery and evening segments continuing, I’m quietly confident.
Sales could also receive a boost as falling interest rates boost consumer spending power.
What could go wrong?
Having said all that, the risks to Greggs remain higher than normal right now, so fresh share price falls can’t be ruled out.
The UK economy’s tipped to worsen slightly in 2026, which could keep sales under pressure. At the same time, competition in the fast food market’s intensifying — KFC, Wendy’s and Subway are just a few rivals also undergoing rapid expansion.
In this environment, Greggs may have to keep slashing prices to support revenues. And with cost strains growing, margins at the business may come under further attack.
Is Greggs a Buy?
That said, there’s an argument that these dangers are already reflected in the share price. This could limit the scale of any fresh falls if newsflow worsens. It could even prompt Greggs’ shares to rise more sharply than City forecasters expect if trading keeps improving.
At £16.80 per share, the company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.5 times. That’s significantly below the long-term average of 22-23 times, and — on balance — suggests excellent value for money, in my book.
While not without risk, I think Greggs is a top stock to consider in view of a potential share price rebound this year.
