Shock news: over 1 year, the FTSE 100 is beating the S&P 500!

For most of the last 15 years, the US S&P 500 index has thrashed the UK’s FTSE 100. However, this trend has suddenly come to an end — for now, at least.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

UK coloured flags waving above large crowd on a stadium sport match.

Image source: Getty Images

Though I’m a UK-based investor, my family portfolio is mostly invested in American stocks. That’s partly because the US stock market is so vast, being larger than all other stock markets combined. Also, the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are two of the most-tracked indexes among global investors. Nevertheless, the UK’s FTSE 100 has overtaken its US counterpart lately.

Fabulous FTSE

Since the FTSE 100’s launch in 1984, it has sometimes beaten the S&P 500 over long periods. However, since the global financial crisis of 2007/09, the growth-dominated US index has thrashed its value-orientated British cousin.

Over five years, the main US market index has leapt by 87.5%, easily beating the Footsie’s 47.4% gain over this period. But more recently, the American index is up 16.8% this calendar year, versus 18.2% for its British rival.

Furthermore, the FTSE 100 wins over 12 months, rising 15.5%, versus 13.4% for its American peer. This recent trend may come as a surprise to many, but not me. I have repeatedly argued that UK shares seem cheap, whereas US stocks are among the most expensive they have ever been.

And that’s not all

What’s more, the above returns do not include dividends: regular cash payments made by some listed companies to shareholders.

Traditionally, American companies are stingy with dividends, preferring to reinvest profits to drive future growth. Conversely, many FTSE 100 companies pay generous dividends to their patient owners.

Looking at total returns — capital gains plus dividends — the S&P 500 has returned 14.6% over one year. The FTSE’s total return over this timescale is 20.5%, a margin of 5.9 percentage points.

In addition, because of the stronger pound, the return from the S&P 500 in British pounds is lower. Over one year, the US index has produced a total return of just 9.5% in sterling terms.

In summary, British investors would have been far better off owning the FTSE 100 than the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.

Big, British…and beautiful?

As a value and income investor, I see hidden pockets of value in the London stock market. For example, one UK share that seems mispriced to me is Diageo (LSE: DGE).

Shares in this global drinks Goliath have crashed hard in 2025, driven lower by falling alcohol sales to the under-30s. Unfortunately for Diageo and its peers, boozy nights out face stiff competition from social media, video gaming, and (legal and illicit) cannabis. As a result, global alcohol sales have fallen steeply following their post-lockdown surge.

Despite this downturn, I suspect there is value lurking within this FTSE 100 ‘fallen angel’. As I write, Diageo shares trade at 1,636.24p, valuing the group at £36.3bn. The share price has crashed 32.8% over one year and 45.6% over five.

This price plunge has pushed up Diageo’s dividend yield to almost 4.9% a year — over 1.5 times the FTSE 100’s yearly cash yield of 3.2%. To me, this indicates that these shares are undervalued and perhaps due a re-rating to higher levels. (Note: at its 52-week high, the share price hit 2,619.5p on 13 December 2024.)

Lastly, I could be wrong and Diageo’s negative sales growth could continue. But I’m hopeful that 2026 will be better than 2025, especially under the new CEO. Of course, there may be even better value hiding elsewhere…

The Motley Fool UK has recommended Diageo. Cliff D’Arcy has an economic interest in Diageo shares. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services, such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool, we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Dividend Shares

DIVIDEND YIELD text written on a notebook with chart
Dividend Shares

How this stock market correction can help boost a second income by 25%

Jon Smith explains how rising dividend yields across some existing income shares can be seen as an opportunity to grow…

Read more »

piggy bank, searching with binoculars
Investing Articles

Stock market correction: time to create that £1,000-a-month passive income portfolio?

Millions of Britons invest for passive income. Dr James Fox believes they should always look to do so when others…

Read more »

UK financial background: share prices and stock graph overlaid on an image of the Union Jack
Dividend Shares

1 extraordinary chance to buy this FTSE 100 share?

After the US attacked Iran, the FTSE 100 crashed 11.6% from its 2026 high before bouncing back. However, this major…

Read more »

DIVIDEND YIELD text written on a notebook with chart
Investing Articles

10.7% yield! Should investors snap up Taylor Wimpey shares before they go ex-dividend on 2 April?

Harvey Jones is stunned by the double-digit yield available from Taylor Wimpey shares. But the FTSE 250 stock comes with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

How much do you need in an ISA to aim for a £750 monthly second income?

Harvey Jones crunches the numbers to show how investors could aim for a high-and-rising second income from dividend-paying FTSE 100…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£20,000 invested in a Stocks and Shares ISA over the last year is now worth…

With tax season coming to an end, investors will soon have a fresh £20k allowance for their Stocks and Shares…

Read more »

Businessman hand stacking money coins with virtual percentage icons
Investing Articles

Stock market correction: a rare second income opportunity?

Falling share prices are pushing dividend yields higher. That makes it a good time for investors looking for chances to…

Read more »

Finger clicking a button marked 'Buy' on a keyboard
Dividend Shares

I just discovered this REIT with a juicy 9% dividend yield

Jon Smith points out a REIT that just came on his radar due to the high yield, but comes with…

Read more »