The BP (LSE: BP) share price is an unpredictable beast. Even more than most stocks, I have no idea where it might go next.
So I decided to hand over the job to artificial intelligence (AI) and asked ChatGPT where it thought the shares would stand at the end of this decade.
Even though large-language models can hallucinate, and basically feed on the work of others, I was curious to see what it would come up with. I’d use its output as a springboard for my own research, and not take the results too seriously.
Today, the shares trade at around 420p. Here are the share price estimates that ChatGPT provided for 2030:
“Bull case (oil price strong, cost cuts succeed, green transition aids profitability): 900p or more.“
“Bear case (weak demand, regulatory shocks, stranded-asset risk): 300p-450p.“
“Base (mid) case: 600p-700p.“
All of which is very vague and lacking insight. Although ChatGPT did cite three broad themes: global energy demand, oil-and-gas investment, and regulatory risk.
Chatting about FTSE 100 oil stocks
Energy demand: The chatbot argued that emerging-market growth and persistent global supply gaps would keep crude prices firm, bolstering BP’s earnings. So that’s a tick in the bull column.
Investment discipline: It said BP has a chance to shine if it sticks to cost cuts and delivers free cash flow growth, a key driver of shareholder returns and dividend support.
Regulation & transition: The bear scenario kicks in if regulatory pressure intensifies or renewables erode fossil fuel profitability. ChatGPT flagged that as a material risk.
So should anyone trust these forecasts? Absolutely not. First, absolutely nobody can predict the future. Robots don’t carry glass balls either.
Growth, income and hope
I decided to check predictions from human analysts, and found that 29 brokers offer one-year share price forecasts for BP. They have wildly different views, with a maximum estimate of 822.8p, almost double today’s, and a minimum of just 373.8p.
The consensus estimate is 481p, which would mark an increase of around 14.5% from today. Throw in the forecast 2025 yield of 5.8%, and BP’s total return would be nudging 20%.
Personally, I’d be delighted to get that, but I’m not putting my faith in those predictions, any more than ChatGPT.
If private investors, brokers and robots can’t forecast the future, where does that leave investors?
First, we do research on the stock, to come to a view on its prospects, but brace ourselves for the unexpected and unpredictable. Second, only buy as part of our diversified portfolio at least it doesn’t share, possibly a few more. That way if one or two holdings have a shocker, others may compensate.
Third, only buy shares with a minimum five-year view, and ideally longer. That gives investors time for the ups and downs to play out, and for reinvested dividends to compound and grow. Time is the investor’s ultimate friend. Chatbots merely an amusing distraction.
My personal view is that BP shares are worth considering today, especially for income seekers, but only with those three provisos in mind.
