Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock has had a phenomenal run in recent years. Over the last half-decade, it’s soared roughly 1,500%, turning a $1,000 investment into about $16,000.
After that incredible run – which has seen the company’s market-cap balloon to over $3trn – many investors believe that returns from here are likely to be limited. However, looking ahead, I personally believe there’s potential for more gains.
Here’s where I think the tech stock could be in three years.
Demand for AI chips
Nvidia’s key offering today – and the main driver of its recent success – is artificial intelligence (AI) chips (GPUs). These ‘accelerated computing’ products allow companies involved in AI such as OpenAI (ChatGPT), Microsoft, and Amazon to train and run complex AI models efficiently (at a scale previously unimaginable).
Now, I don’t think demand for these products is going to die off any time soon. That’s because every time Nvidia releases a new product, customers scramble to get orders in.
For example, just last month, Oracle said it’s going to spend around $40bn on Nvidia’s GB200 Grace Blackwell superchips. These will be used to power OpenAI’s new US data centre.
Also last month, it came to light that Nvidia will sell 18,000 of its most advanced chips, including the GB300 Blackwell, to Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN. This is an AI venture backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
It’s worth noting that lately, some tech companies have actually been held back by a lack of available chips. Amazon’s a good example here. It recently posted solid growth of 17% in cloud computing (AWS) for the first quarter of 2025. However, analysts at MoffettNathanson noted that AWS is capacity constrained and would be “growing faster with greater chip availability.”
So I think demand for Nvidia’s AI chips is likely to remain robust in the years ahead. If it does, the group’s earnings (and share price) should continue to climb.
Earnings growth
Now, let’s say that Wall Street’s earnings growth forecast for this financial year (ending 31 January 2026) is accurate. That would take earnings per share (EPS) to $4.30 (+45% year on year).
And let’s also say that Nvidia can generate EPS growth of 20% a year over the next three years. That’s a high level of growth but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable forecast given AI industry growth projections.
That would take EPS to $7.43 by FY2029. Stick a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30 on that forecast, and we have a price target of $223. That’s almost 60% higher than the share price today.
As a long-term investor in Nvidia, I’d be happy with that kind of gain over the next three years.
My forecast
I’ll point out that my share price forecast is simplistic in nature. My assumptions could end up being way off the mark. With this stock, there are lots of factors that could slow growth and impact the share price trajectory. These include lower chip demand from Big Tech companies, new lower-cost AI products like DeepSeek, import restrictions, and competition from rivals such as AMD.
I’ll also point out that I’m not necessarily saying it’s wise to rush out and buy the stock today. It could pay to consider waiting for a 10-20% pullback.
But I do think this stock’s going higher in the long run. So I plan to hold on to it.
