If I look back over the past five years and choose one stock I wish I owned, it would have to be Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR.), and not just because of the share price climb.
Yes, the shares are up 470% in the past two years. And I confess I’m a bit sore that I missed out on that. But more importantly, I see Rolls-Royce as a company with a great long-term future.
Perhaps ironically, the 2020 stock market crash might have been just what Rolls needed to kick it out of complacency. Today, it’s a slimmed-down and more efficient operation, headed by first-class management.
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Share price dip?
If I think that, maybe I should just go with my long-term convictions and buy now? But then I think of something a friend once told me, a long time ago. He said: “You sure know how to buy shares after they’ve already gone up.“
So, here I am still hoping for a share price dip that could give me a better buying opportunity.
Does that mean I’m trying to time the market, which is usually a hopeless task? It would make no more sense than buying into something just because everyone else is.
But I reckon plenty have done exactly that, bought simply because it’s been going up. And if the price surge should end and the momentum investors jump ship…? I’ve seen that happen with probably 90% or more of all the growth stocks I’ve watched over the decades.
Market timer?
I’m really thinking more in terms of valuation than timing. I want to buy cheap, and I don’t care when that might be.
I don’t actually see Rolls-Royce shares as overvalued, even now. A forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 might look high. But compared to the global aerospace sector, it could be about right.
Then again, most of Rolls-Royce’s peers are US-listed stocks, where valuations are typically higher than on the London Stock Exchange.
Still, if the P/E drops to 25 by 2026 as forecasts suggest, Rolls shares could well be fair value now.
I want cheap
I know billionaire investor Warren Buffett, head of head of Berkshire Hathaway, urges us to buy great companies at fair prices. And yes, he’s done better than me at this game.
But surely even he’d prefer to buy his great companies at cheap prices rather than merely fair, wouldn’t he?
Right now, I see companies that I rate as having equally great long-term prospects to Rolls-Royce. But they’re on more attractive valuations, and with good dividends thrown in.
At the late stage in my investing career, those are the stocks I really should be buying today. And not chasing the high-flying but riskier growth stocks that might better suit younger investors.
Still watching
But I do see a chance that, one quarter, Rolls might not quite hit its lofty forecasts. That could lead to a nice buying opportunity, and I plan to keep a bit of cash ready just in case.
