With the price of gold near its all-time high, Greatland Gold (LSE: GGP) may be worth consideration if the share price near 7.25p proves to offer decent value.
However, there’s a little problem with this one. The Australia-focused gold exploration and development business hasn’t yet scored a full trading year of revenue, never mind earnings.
But that situation may be about to change.
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Is this an opportunity, or what?
On 10 September, the company announced a “transformational” acquisition from Newmont Corporation. The deal means Greatland will buy the Telfer gold-copper mine and the remaining 70% stake of the near-by Havieron gold-copper project, plus other related interests in the Paterson region of Western Australia.
The two firms are aiming to complete the deal by early December, so it’s imminent. But it’s also expensive. The total consideration and loan repayment will be “up to” US$475m.
But that’s just the start. Greatland has already raised $334m via an institutional placing and retail investor offer “to fund the acquisition and other uses”. This is the latest in a long line of fundraising events, each one diluting existing shareholders.
Coming down the road, there’s also a promise of loans from a consortium of banks: $75m for working capital, $25m for contingencies, and a whopping $750m to finance the development of the Havieron project.
These are big sums of investment and shareholders have suffered so far in Greatland’s journey. The stock chart tells the story.
I’ve found in the past with these profitless mine-development companies that the optimum time to invest is right on the cusp of first production. There’s often plenty of time to get a decent entry price for a stock when earnings are just about a nailed-on certainty.
Holding back has saved me from several investment disasters over the years.
That way, many things that can go wrong in the development business have often done so — and that almost always seems to happen, with more calls for finance along the way.
Hang on, this one may be different
However, this situation seems a little unusual because the company is buying in at almost-ready production state. But how far from completion is the development part of the assets in the deal? It looks like there’s a long road to travel yet.
Chair Mark Barnaba said the acquisition of Telfer provides a “de-risked” near-term mine plan. On top of that, there are “substantial” ore stockpiles at the surface and attractive mine life extension opportunities.
Crucially, production from Telfer should generate free cash flow to support the development of the Havieron project.
Ownership of the Telfer infrastructure “substantially” reduces the cost of completing Havieron’s development, Banaba said. It also “enhances” the potential value of exploration success in the firm’s “extensive” Paterson exploration portfolio.
There’s still risk here, so I’ll at least wait until the deal completes next month and possibly a few weeks and months after that before considering a purchase of the shares.
Nevertheless, Banaba reckons the company is well positioned to build a “generational mining complex and create value for shareholders”. So I’m keeping the stock on close watch and aim to follow the news flow.
