Is the stock market about to turn into a pumpkin?

With the ghost of inflation threatening to reappear this Halloween, could the stock market be set for a frightening correction or even a crash?

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In general, the stock market’s done pretty well in 2024. The FTSE 100 is up almost 7% and the S&P 500 has gained around 23%. 

With share prices though, the sharpest falls often follow periods of the greatest returns. So could investors be in for a fright in the near future?

Scary signs

There are two main reasons the stock market might crash. The first is that stocks look expensive – and not just US ones. 

Should you invest £1,000 in Gsk right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Gsk made the list?

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Source: Siblis Research

At the end of June, the FTSE 100 was trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.5. That’s the highest it’s been since 2022 and the index has gone up since then.

On top of this, the macroeconomic environment isn’t looking particularly friendly to stocks. After cutting interest rates in August, the Bank of England decided to hold steady in September.

If the US Federal Reserve does the same, then investors who were expecting rates to fall might have to rethink their buying decisions. And that could be bad for share prices.

This is a very real possibility – falling bond prices indicate investors are concerned about the spectre of inflation. If that makes an appearance, the central bank might have to change course.

Nothing’s guaranteed, but investors looking at buying stocks this Halloween might be in for a fright. Fortunately, as with the witches and the ghosts, there’s probably nothing to be scared of.

Don’t run away

Stock market crashes can be scary. But the rewards for investors who avoid running away when things get frightening can be terrific. 

For example, Warren Buffett finished buying shares in Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) in 1994. Since then, the stock market’s crashed three times – in 2001, 2008 and 2020.

Despite this, the investment that Berkshire Hathaway paid $1.3bn for has a market value of almost $27bn today. And that isn’t including the dividends, which have increased each year. 

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Coca-Cola PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALL31 Oct 201931 Oct 2024Zoom ▾Jan '20Jul '20Jan '21Jul '21Jan '22Jul '22Jan '23Jul '23Jan '24Jul '242020202020212021202220222023202320242024www.fool.co.uk

Buffett hasn’t needed to predict what the stock market will do to generate that spectacular result. The only thing necessary has been to find an outstanding company and hold on. 

Coca-Cola absolutely fits the bill in this regard. At today’s prices, I think there are better opportunities around, but the quality of the underlying business is undeniable. 

Selling the Coke investment in anticipation of a market crash at any point in the last 30 years would probably have been a big mistake. And I think that’s a lesson investors can take note of.

Happy Halloween

Halloween’s a great reminder that it can be fun to feel scared. But a stock market crash is almost never enjoyable for investors who see their stocks falling.

As with Halloween though, the frightening part doesn’t last forever. And being scared off by the prospect of a short-term scare could cause investors to miss out on some long-term treats.

But what does the head of The Motley Fool’s investing team think?

Should you invest £1,000 in Gsk right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Gsk made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Stephen Wright has positions in Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Like buying £1 for 51p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this recent ‘Best Buy Now’ has a price/book ratio of 0.51. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 51p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 8.5%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

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