Could the Glencore share price boom in coming years?

Possible demand drivers for natural resources might seem like good news for the Glencore share price. Our writer explains why he is not buying yet.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Tanker coming in to dock in calm waters and a clear sunset

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Mining is back! Or is it? After boom years, miners like Glencore (LSE: GLEN) have found the going tough lately. Last year, post-tax profits at Glencore fell over 80% and the dividend was cut by three-quarters. But with signs that demand for raw materials could be set to rebound even amid a fairly weak economy, might the Glencore share price rise from here?

Uncertain demand picture

On one hand, the outlook for mining continues to be plagued both by uncertainty and a generally weak economic backdrop.

More positively, though, governments including China have lately been laying out plans to increase economic growth. We know that sooner or later, demand for natural resources will come back strongly – we just do not know when.

Should you invest £1,000 in Glencore Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Glencore Plc made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Meanwhile, Glencore has already been performing well even while the price of many of the commodities it sells – such as thermal coal – has been weak. Revenue in the first half showed 9% year-on-year growth. Funds from operations grew by the same amount.

For now, it is hard to say with confidence what the short-term demand picture looks like and what that means for pricing.

Over the medium to long term, however, I expect demand and therefore pricing to grow. That ought to be good for revenues and especially profitability at Glencore, which like most miners has high fixed costs.

Share price could still go either way

If that happens, I think it could be very good news for the Glencore share price. It is 30% lower than at the start of last year. Strong pricing could help push up profits and I reckon the share price would follow.

The market cap is currently slightly less than £50bn. That is barely three times the company’s post-tax profits last year.

If pricing firms and profits soar, the current valuation could look very cheap in retrospect.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Glencore Plc PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.co.uk

Looking from the other side of things, though, last year’s performance seems exceptional. There is a reason post-tax profits fell four-fifths this year. It demonstrates just how turbulent the market for natural resources can be. In itself that merits a discount in the share price.

Not only that, but things could get worse from here.

After all, while many economies are performing weakly, they are not actually in recession. A full-blown global recession – let alone depression – could be very bad news for resource prices and with them, the Glencore share price.

Why I’m waiting

In fact, that explains why I have no plans to invest in Glencore (or any mining companies) for now.

I think the share price may boom at some point but that could be years – maybe many years – in the future.

Once the economy is on firmer ground and we are more obviously in an upward swing in the economic cycle, I would consider buying into Glencore. For now, though, I feel I see better value in other sectors.

Pound coins for sale — 31 pence?

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this Share Advisor pick has a price/book ratio of 0.31. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 31p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 10%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

C Ruane has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Like buying £1 for 51p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this recent ‘Best Buy Now’ has a price/book ratio of 0.51. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 51p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 8.5%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

More on Investing Articles

Number three written on white chat bubble on blue background
Investing Articles

Just released: the 3 best growth-focused stocks to consider buying in April [PREMIUM PICKS]

Our goal here is to highlight some of our past recommendations that we think are of particular interest today, due…

Read more »

Happy young plus size woman sitting at kitchen table and watching tv series on tablet computer
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Watches of Switzerland shares 1 year ago is now worth…

Watches of Switzerland shares have been decimated by Trump’s tariffs on Switzerland. Dr James Fox explores whether this is an…

Read more »

Hand flipping wooden cubes for change wording" Panic " to " Calm".
Investing Articles

Growth stocks are crashing! Here’s what I’m doing now

Our writer shares his thoughts as growth stocks get crushed, as well as a favourite from the Nasdaq that he…

Read more »

Investing Articles

What’s going on with the Nvidia share price now?

The Nvidia share price is tanking. Once the most valuable listed company, Nvidia has seen more than $1trn wiped off…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This FTSE AIM stock has £2.3bn in net cash, and a market cap of £2.4bn!

I love this FTSE AIM stock, but it really hasn’t delivered for me yet. The stock trades with crazily low…

Read more »

Smart young brown businesswoman working from home on a laptop
Investing Articles

Down 15% in a week! Are these 5 FTSE 100 fallers screaming buys as markets plunge?

Five of Harvey Jones's favourite FTSE 100 stocks all have the same thing in common – they've fallen around 15%…

Read more »

Hand of person putting wood cube block with word VALUE on wooden table
Investing Articles

2 stocks that have been crushed and now offer a ton of value

Edward Sheldon has been scanning the market for stocks that offer value after the sell-off. Here are two shares he…

Read more »

Light trails from traffic moving down The Mound in central Edinburgh, Scotland during December
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Aston Martin shares at Christmas is now worth…

Aston Martin shares have fallen from above £10 in early 2020 to pennies today. Is this the perfect time for…

Read more »