Airline stocks were hit hard in 2020 with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. As flights ground to a halt, companies found themselves with no customers while still having to shell out millions each month in maintenance costs. The result of this was negative cash flows, growing debts, and crashing stock prices.
However, fast forward to 2022, and much of the lost flying time has been recouped. As people are free to travel again, I would expect airline stocks to be slowly climbing. Yet this hasn’t been the case. easyJet (LSE: EZJ), IAG (LSE: IAG), and Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAA.Y) are down 40%, 33%, and 32% year to date respectively. Over a one-year span, the same stocks are down 49%, 35%, and 33%. So that being said, is now the time to buy back in?
Ready for take-off?
A big positive for airline stocks is the continuing increase in footfall. In 2019, just under 5bn people boarded flights. In 2020, this number fell all the way down to 1.8bn. However, in 2022, it’s forecast that just under 3.5bn customers will board flights, highlighting the impressive recovery. As this figure increases, it will help boost firms’ top lines, which I expect to be reflected in share prices.
Looking at company-specific results, I also see good news. IAG reported a profit for the three months to June 30 for the first time in two years. Ryanair posted a profit of £170m in its Q1 FY23 results too. Although easyJet recorded a loss of £110m for the same period, its revenues soared to £1.7bn, up from just £213m a year prior. In addition to this, its net debts shrank to just £200m, down from £600m in March 2022. These figures suggest to me the airline industry is in a more comfortable spot.
Not out of the woods yet
But there remain risks. A big threat that could continue to plague airlines is rising fuel costs. The Russia-Ukraine crisis sent the price of oil skyrocketing to over $120 per barrel. Currently sitting around the $100 mark, the price of jet fuel will inevitably have skyrocketed too, increasing operating costs and eating away at margins.
Another risk that airlines must overcome is rising inflation and how this is impacting workers’ wages. We’ve already been seeing union action regarding the erosion of pay in other travel industries. easyJet, Ryanair, and British Airways have all seen strikes this summer, and there’s no guarantee that these won’t continue.
Rising interest rates are also creating a harsh environment for stocks to thrive. I expect this bearish sentiment to be another reason why airline stocks have fallen.
Flying under the radar
Yet I think that airline stocks are back on the up. Shares have fallen due to rising fuel costs, the threat of industrial action, and the wider macroeconomy. However, with flight numbers rising, and industry leaders returning to profitability, I think now could be time to buy back in. As such, I’m looking at buying some UK airline stocks for my portfolio today.
