The Motley Fool

Lloyds Bank? I’d forget it and buy this strong UK stock

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Image of person checking their shares portfolio on mobile phone and computer
Image source: Getty Images.

I don’t know of any well-known UK stock that seems to divide the opinion of investors more than Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY).

Bull versus bear

The bull argument appears to run along the lines that the stock looks cheap against the usual valuation measures. And the dividend yield is high. What’s more, it’s a well-established stalwart of the UK’s lead index and one of the country’s largest public blue-chip businesses.

5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50

Markets around the world are reeling from the coronavirus pandemic… and with so many great companies trading at what look to be ‘discount-bin’ prices, now could be the time for savvy investors to snap up some potential bargains.

But whether you’re a newbie investor or a seasoned pro, deciding which stocks to add to your shopping list can be a daunting prospect during such unprecedented times.

Fortunately, The Motley Fool UK analyst team have short-listed five companies that they believe STILL boast significant long-term growth prospects despite the global upheaval…

We’re sharing the names in a special FREE investing report that you can download today. And if you’re 50 or over, we believe these stocks could be a great fit for any well-diversified portfolio.

Click here to claim your free copy now!

And on top of all that, the interest environment has been low for years, but rates appear to be on the rise. And banks can do well when interest rates are higher. Also, banks tend to thrive when the economy prospers.

So with the pandemic beginning to lose its grip, we could see brighter economic times ahead. And that would be ideal for helping the Lloyds business to grow.

However, I find the bear argument to be more compelling. And, for me, it starts with the observation that Lloyds operates a highly cyclical business. It’s super-sensitive to changes in the economic outlook and to investor sentiment. Profits, dividends and the share price tend to cycle up and down over the months and years with depressing regularity. And periods of high earnings often lead to lower earnings around the corner. So when earnings have been high for some time, there’s often a lot of risk to the downside for the stock.

And that last point is what worries me the most because earnings have indeed been high since around 2016. But in that assessment, I’m ignoring the temporary effects of the pandemic. On top of that, I’m discounting the bull case for the stock being attractive because of a low valuation. To me, ultra-cyclical companies are ‘supposed’ to have a low valuation when they appear to be near the top of their earnings cycles.

A strong UK stock

So, on balance, I’m ignoring Lloyds Banking Group and see more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere, such as with Smurfit Kappa (LSE: SKG). The company operates as a paper-based packaging maker. And it’s been investing for growth while riding a tsunami of demand. And that’s being driven by the e-commerce sector and a shift in the market to paper-based packaging for sustainability.

City analysts are upbeat about the prospects of the business. They’ve pencilled in double-digit percentage increases for earnings this year and in 2022. And chief executive Tony Smurfit said in July: “We are accelerating our investment plans to capitalise on the significant growth opportunities available to us.”

Yet, despite the firm’s progress, the share price has weakened recently. It’s true that the operation has been facing rising input costs because prices for many things have been going up. But Smurfit Kappa has been good at raising its selling prices to preserve profit margins.

Meanwhile, with the share price near 3,921p, the forward-looking earnings multiple is just over 14 for 2022. And the anticipated dividend yield is around 2.8%. That’s not a bargain valuation and the stock price could slide lower if the company fails to meet its earnings estimates.

Nevertheless, I’m tempted to buy a few shares of Smurfit Kappa because the business looks strong to me.

However, so does this one...

FREE REPORT: Why this £5 stock could be set to surge

Are you on the lookout for UK growth stocks?

If so, get this FREE no-strings report now.

While it’s available: you'll discover what we think is a top growth stock for the decade ahead.

And the performance of this company really is stunning.

In 2019, it returned £150million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

We believe its financial position is about as solid as anything we’ve seen.

  • Since 2016, annual revenues increased 31%
  • In March 2020, one of its senior directors LOADED UP on 25,000 shares – a position worth £90,259
  • Operating cash flow is up 47%. (Even its operating margins are rising every year!)

Quite simply, we believe it’s a fantastic Foolish growth pick.

What’s more, it deserves your attention today.

So please don’t wait another moment.

Get the full details on this £5 stock now – while your report is free.

Kevin Godbold has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Lloyds Banking Group. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Our 6 'Best Buys Now' Shares

Renowned stock-picker Mark Rogers and his analyst team at The Motley Fool UK have named 6 shares that they believe UK investors should consider buying NOW.

So if you’re looking for more stock ideas to try and best position your portfolio today, then it might be a good day for you. Because we're offering a full 33% off your first year of membership to our flagship share-tipping service, backed by our 'no quibbles' 30-day subscription fee refund guarantee.

Simply click below to discover how you can take advantage of this.