Winners & Losers From A Rise In Interest Rates: Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Unilever plc, British American Tobacco plc, BHP Billiton plc And Lloyds Banking Group PLC

British American Tobacco plc (LON: BATS) and Unilever plc (LON: ULVR) will suffer, but Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON: LLOY), BHP Billiton plc (LON: BLT) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON: RDSB) will profit.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

With the economy roaring back to life, the Bank of England has revealed that interest rates are set to begin rising later this year. This is great news for savers, who have been struggling with rock-bottom savings rates for some time now. 

However, for investors, rising interest rates could bring about some unwanted consequences. 

Rates up, prices down city

Most investors will be aware that as interest rates rise, bond prices fall, but many investors also fail to realise that rising interest rates will have the same effect on stock prices. 

According to financial data company Morningstar, it has been found that over the past few decades, defensive companies — with bond-like qualities — have seen their share prices fall as interest rates rise. On the other hand, Morningstar has found that the share prices of cyclical companies will rise when interest rates rise. 

Morningstar picks out slow-growth, defensive companies with high dividend payouts, like British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) and Unilever (LSE: ULVR), as the companies that are most likely to see their share prices fall when interest rates rise. 

That being said, Morningstar has also found that cyclical companies, such as BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT) and Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB), tend see their share prices rise in line with interest rates. 

No reason to worry

So, is it time to swap your holdings in Unilever and British American Tobacco for BHP Billiton and Shell following this news?

Well, due to their defensive natures, I think both Unilever and British American deserve a place in any portfolio. What’s more, at present Unilever offers a dividend yield of 4.1%, with the payout being covered one-and-a-half times by earnings per share. It’s going to be a long time before interest rates rise enough to rival this yield. 

Similarly, British American’s shares are currently supporting a dividend yield of 4%, once again covered one-and-a-half times by earnings per share. As an investment, British American will remain attractive long after interest rates start to rise, as the company’s earnings are expected to rise at a high single-digit percentage over the next few years. 

bhpbillitonGoing cyclical

Still, it’s never a bad idea to be prepared, and if you’re looking to profit when interest rates start to rise, both Shell and BHP make great picks.  

Shell is a dividend champion. The company currently supports a dividend yield of 4.2%, which is expected to hit 4.4% next year. These payouts are covered by around one-and-a-half times by earnings per share. Further, at present levels Shell’s shares look cheap. The company is trading at a forward P/E of 11.5.

Then there is BHP. At first glance, BHP’s lowly dividend yield of 3.3% is not much to get excited about. However, the company is planning to spin off its ‘Billiton’ part of the business some time over the next few months, which is likely to mean a hefty cash return for investors. The company’s dividend yield is set to hit 3.5% next year, above the FTSE 100 average of 3.4%. 

If you can’t decide Lloyds

If you can’t decide between BHP, Shell, Unilever and British American Tobacco, there is another choice: Lloyds (LSE: LLOY). Lloyds, as a bank, will be able to navigate the rising interest rate environment better than most. Indeed, rising rates will allow the bank to charge customers more to borrow. 

In addition, according to my figures, if Lloyds is allowed to recommence its dividend payouts to investors then the bank’s shares could yield up to 7%!

For example, if Lloyds does get the go ahead from regulators to restart dividend payments, City experts believe that the bank will return around 70% of income to investors. 

If City predictions prove true and the bank does hike its payout ratio to 70%, then with earnings of 8p per share forecast for 2015, Lloyds could offer a dividend payout of 5.6p per share, a yield of around 7.1%.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Unilever.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Up 50% in a year! Now check out the intriguing BP share price forecast for the next 12 months

The BP share price is up one day, down the next, as geopolitical uncertainty rattles the FTSE 100. Harvey Jones…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is now the perfect time to buy high-yield FTSE 100 dividend shares? 

Harvey Jones says UK dividend shares have a brilliant track record of delivering income and growth, and he can see…

Read more »

Bronze bull and bear figurines
Investing Articles

At 7,000 points, the S&P 500 looks bloated. How should investors navigate this market?

AI-hype may have ballooned the S&P 500 into the mother of all bubbles – but only time will tell. For…

Read more »

Smart young brown businesswoman working from home on a laptop
Investing Articles

How £100 can start a portfolio of UK stocks

Whether it’s building wealth or earning passive income, UK investors might be surprised at what £100 a month in stocks…

Read more »

Passive income text with pin graph chart on business table
Investing Articles

How £16,000 can generate a second income in a Stocks and Shares ISA

Stephen Wright explains how UK investors can target an immediate £1,224 annual second income from UK dividend shares with a…

Read more »

Bronze bull and bear figurines
Investing Articles

This crazy growth stock is up 97% inside 2 months in my ISA!

Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) is both an exciting and incredibly volatile growth stock. What on earth has sent it…

Read more »

Woman riding her old fashioned bicycle along the Beach Esplanade at Aberdeen, Scotland.
Investing Articles

How to target a million-pound SIPP by investing in UK shares

Harvey Jones shows how investors could target a SIPP worth a life-changing seven-figure sum, by investing in FTSE 100 dividend…

Read more »

A rear view of a female in a bright yellow coat walking along the historic street known as The Shambles in York, UK which is a popular tourist destination in this Yorkshire city.
Investing Articles

Buying £20k of BAE Systems shares could give me a £360 income this year!

Looking for the best dividend stocks out there? Royston Wild explains why BAE Systems shares are worth considering.

Read more »