Drinks giant Diageo (LSE: DGE) was one of the few Footsie-listed stocks to gain ground in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum. The Johnnie Walker and Captain Morgan manufacturer has punched solid double-digit gains since the Brexit vote, with the firm striking record peaks above £21 per share in the process.
Diageo, like much of the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE: UKX), has of course surged owing to its huge international bias, with investors shifting out of stocks with a greater reliance on the now-uncertain UK economy.
Sure, the company may have made high-profile blunders in its bid to expand, the purchase of China’s ShuiJingFang in 2013 coming immediately to mind. Diageo was forced to swallow a £264m writedown a year later as Chinese anti-extravagance measures weighed.
But the case for extending into emerging markets remains strong of course, with rising personal affluence levels across Asia, Latin America and Africa steadily driving alcohol demand. And Diageo’s portfolio of market-leading labels puts it at the front of the queue to benefit from this trend.
So while Diageo’s forward P/E rating of 23.9 times may sail above the historical big-cap average of 15 times, I reckon the firm’s solid growth outlook could fuel further share price gains, particularly given its strong defensive characteristics.
Commodities clanger
Electric ‘safe haven’ stock-selecting has also driven raw materials goliath Anglo American (LSE: AAL) higher in recent weeks — indeed, the iron ore giant climbed to its highest in almost a year in recent sessions.
However, I believe investors may be stepping into a trap here. Those seeking security from Brexit by buying into the commodities sector seem to be ignoring the likely impact of cooling Chinese material demand in the coming years, as well as the ‘double whammy’ of rising supply levels.
Earlier this month Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science slashed its 2017 iron ore forecast by a colossal 20%, thanks in no small part to surging local production. The steelmaking ingredient is now expected to average $44.80 per tonne, down from the body’s prior prediction of $56.
And Anglo American faces similar oversupply problems in its other key markets. So despite the positive impact of huge restructuring, I reckon the digger’s high risk profile isn’t reflected by a forward P/E multiple of 23.9 times, and reckon this leaves room for a significant stock price reversal.
Silver sinker?
Precious metals play Fresnillo (LSE: FRES) has also benefitted from the rising popularity of commodity stocks, not to mention a hefty uptick in the price of gold.
While gold may have retreated from the 28-month peaks of $1,350 per ounce in recent sessions, I reckon the ‘rush to safety’ asset is likely to regain its uptrend as investor jitters persist and delayed Federal Reserve rate hikes erode the US dollar.
Still, this doesn’t mean Fresnillo’s share price will charge higher. While silver’s fundamentals may have improved in recent years — mostly as global metal supply has declined — fears over demand for jewellery and other key markets remains a big problem for Fresnillo’s other major product.
Recent share price gains leave Fresnillo dealing on a prospective P/E ratio of 61.6 times. I reckon this is far too heady, particularly given that many dedicated gold producers deal on much lower multiples.
