Five years ago, very few investors would have predicted that Tullow Oil’s (LSE: TLW) share price would collapse. However, the Africa-focused oil explorer and producer has posted a fall of 86% in its valuation since January 2011. This has sent it to a level lower than in early 2006 when it was in the midst of a stunning rise that saw its shares trade as high as £15 by 2012.
But now investor sentiment in Tullow Oil is poor and with the price of oil seeming unlikely to move higher in the short run, few investors are piling into the company.
However, for long-term investors Tullow Oil remains a highly attractive proposition. Certainly, a low oil price could be here to stay in 2016 and beyond, but Tullow Oil’s strategy shift has the potential to add significant value and boost the company’s profitability. That’s because the company is seeking to extract the maximum value from existing assets, rather than focusing on exploration. As such, its production levels are set to rise substantially this year – especially in the second half of the year as Tullow’s TEN project in Ghana is due to come onstream in mid-2016.
The result of increased production is expected to be a rise in net profit of 851% in the current year and with Tullow trading on a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2, a 30% rise in its share price is very much on the cards.
Riding the consumer wave
Also having the potential to return over 30% this year is ARM (LSE: ARM). Certainly, worries about the Chinese economy are a concern for the company’s investors since China is a key market for smartphone sales (for which ARM is a key supplier). However, disappointing Chinese economic data masks the fact that the world’s second-largest economy is transitioning from being capital expenditure-led to being consumer expenditure-led. For companies such as ARM, this is good news since sales of consumables are likely to rise in the long run.
Clearly, ARM is a highly efficient business that has proved to be relatively resilient in recent years. In fact, it’s expected to have posted positive profit growth in four of the last five years when it reports its 2015 financial results. For a technology company, this is hugely impressive. And while it trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29, its valuation has historically been much higher and could rise due to a continued upbeat financial outlook.
Meanwhile, the largest budget airline in Central and Eastern Europe, Wizz (LSE: WIZZ), has today released encouraging passenger statistics for December. Total passenger numbers have risen by 22% versus December 2014. Additionally, an increase in capacity of 21% and a higher load factor of 85.1% (versus 84.3% for December 2014) indicate that the company is moving in the right direction.
Looking ahead, Wizz is expected to increase its bottom line by 33% in the current year and by a further 16% in the next financial year. This puts the company on a PEG ratio of just 0.8, which indicates that the 12% gain in its share price of the last six months looks set to continue, with 30% gains being on the cards over the medium-to-long term.
Peter Stephens owns shares of ARM Holdings. The Motley Fool UK has recommended ARM Holdings and Tullow Oil. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.