In the first month of 2025, Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares were riding the crest of a wave. The low-cost bakery chain was rapidly expanding. The release of new products like the ‘vegan sausage roll’ had been making newspaper headlines. The share price had been surging on the back of the company’s rapid expansion up and down the country.
Articles covering Greggs shares were some of the most viewed here on The Motley Fool. The stock was one of the most exciting on the entire London Stock Exchange and seemingly destined to join the heavyweights on the FTSE 100.
What happened next? A rather large reversal of fortunes…
Why didn’t I buy?
Greggs‘ share price fell from 2,796p in January 2025 to 1,509p up to May. An investor opening a position in the early stages of last year would be looking at a paper loss of 46%. Yowzer!
This was no hypothetical exercise either. I wrote about Greggs shares numerous times near the peak of the hype and considered buying a small stake. The growth story looked compelling, with hundreds of locations opening every year. Its niche of a low-cost meal provider during a cost-of-living crisis looked attractive too.
In the end, I opted against the purchase. Why? The valuation played some role – a price-to-earnings ratio in the high 20s compared unfavourably to many other British stocks. You might remember how many were saying UK stocks were looking underpriced around then and the FTSE 100 did go on to have a mini bull run. The growing impact of inflation was a concern of mine too.
What next?
While I’m thankful that I opted against a decision that would have see me lose half my stake, the situation’s now somewhat different. Greggs’ shares are 46% cheaper than they were. Could they be a good buy today?
The plus side is that Greggs is still growing, adding over 120 new shops in 2026 on current expectations. And a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 looks attractive for a stake in a growing company. That’s half what it was in 2025 and a significant discount compared to many other UK stocks.
On the other hand, new problems have entered the fray. Wage costs have been rising due to government policy and inflation looks set to be a longer-lasting problem than first feared. The issues with casual theft have caused some stores to rework the floor plan to deter opportunistic robbers too. All issues that look likely to put a squeeze on margins.
Personally, I think this is one I will still be avoiding. Simply, I think there are better buying opportunities in Britain at the moment. I recognise there are plenty of opportunitiers though and think it could be one to consider for the right type of investor.
