No investor who owns Endeavour Mining (LSE: EDV) shares can possibly have missed the soaring gold price over the past few years. The precious metal might have fallen back from March’s highs of over $5,000 per ounce. But at $4,635 at the time of writing, it still brings a shine to Endeavour’s first-quarter results, which include….
- Record adjusted EBITDA of $880m.
- Record free cash flow of $613m.
- Net cash up to $405m.
This certainly looks like a cash cow right now. But with Endeavour shares up 72% over the past five years, the question has to be asked: how long can it last?
Surging cash returns
The huge amounts of cash enriching the Endeavour balance sheet bode well for the company’s Assafou development project. And the company says it should help boost shareholder returns.
We’ve seen $1.6bn returned over the past five years. And management now expects total returns to exceed $2bn between 2026 and 2028. Share buybacks have helped top that up, with $30m in the first quarter — and $54m year to date, at the time of the results.
All this, however, is based on a short four-word proviso, but one that seems critical — “at prevailing gold prices“.
So is an investment in Endeavour simply a bet on the price of gold? Looking at how things have gone in the past few years, I find it hard to see it any other way. In fact, Endeavour Mining shares have climbed 119% in the past 12 months, with gold actually up just 38%. It looks to me like there’s a few more years of gold valuation already built into the share price.
Worth the premium?
Even with the shares so far ahead of the metal over 12 months, buying a gold miner might still be a good move. If some of the recent gains are used to significantly grow mining capacity — as seems to be the plan here — a buy now might secure higher longer-term returns, even if the gold price falls back.
And on the production outlook, CEO Ian Cockerill told us:
At Assafou, the recently announced [Definitive Feasibility Study] confirmed the scale and quality of this potential cornerstone project that underpins our organic growth to 1.5 million ounces by 2030.
That’s a lot of gold. And using current profits to secure the supply could turn out to be a smart long-term move.
So what’s the verdict?
I’ve never invested in gold mining shares. And I think to do it successfully requires the ability to work out how to hedge current profits and expenditure against potential long-term prices. Most investors in my experience, however, tend to just jump in as a play on the gold price — which might still work out well.
Once global fears subside, will gold prices decline? I strongly suspect so. And I see a decent chance Endeavour shares — along with other gold miners — could go South too. I reckon most investors should consider seeking lower risk elsewhere.
