BP (LSE: BP.) shares perked up Tuesday morning (28 April), after the company more than doubled its first-quarter profit per share. At least, that’s in terms of replacement cost profit, compared to the previous quarter.
But what does it mean for a share price up 57% in the past 12 months — enough to turn £5,000 into £7,850? Analysts have a short-term target just 5% ahead of the price at the time of writing. Let’s take a closer look.
Cracking quarter
New CEO Meg O’Neill spoke of “another quarter of strong operational and financial delivery,” telling us the company was able to keep “production levels steady despite the ongoing disruption.”
The ongoing disruption is, of course, the conflict in Iran. And as well as threatening supplies, it’s also pushing oil prices up. At the time of writing, Brent Crude is back above $110 again. And that’s not bad news for sellers like BP.
But the company “expects second quarter 2026 reported upstream production to be lower compared with the first quarter 2026.” That’s partly due to Middle East turmoil, but also partly because of seasonal maintenance. And it sounds like full-year upstream production is likely to be “broadly flat compared with 2025.“
How’s the cash?
BP has been a solid cash generator for years. And the company lifted its Q1 dividend 4% compared to the same quarter a year ago. There’s a 4.3% forecast yield on the cards for the full year, comfortably ahead of the FTSE 100 average.
But net debt still stood at $25.3bn, up 14% from the previous quarter. That’s 8.8 times the company’s operating cash flow in the period. But it’s only approximately 21% of BP’s current market cap, so I don’t really see a problem.
On a positive note, the company said it intends to reduce hybrid bond financing by $4.3bn by the end of 2027. Though what the oil business will look like that far ahead — when we have little clue what’s going to happen tomorrow — must surely pile uncertainty on any medium to long-term plans.
What should investors do now?
As investors face what could be a lengthy uncertain spell, it’s hard to know what to take from a single quarter’s results. BP shares are down 15% from their 2026 high in February. But I’m sure the current confusion is holding back broker targets. And I suspect we might see them lifted in the coming months.
Recent events create a stark reminder of the long-term pressure against hydrocarbon use. The current geopolitical mood might favour oil hawks. But just how nice would it be one day to no longer depend on the Middle East for energy?
Saying that, I do see oil as a very important commodity for quite some time to come. And as part of a balanced portfolio — perhaps together with something in renewable energy as a hedge — I reckon investors could still do well to consider BP shares today.
