After a great start to 2026, the FTSE 100 has suffered another ‘Trump slump’. After the US attacked Iraq on 28 February, the UK index started sliding. How bad could things get?
Footsie falls
As I write, the Footsie stands at 10,162, down 7.1% from its record high of 10,934.94 on 27 February. This is close to a correction: a 10%+ fall from a previous peak. However, it is far from a stock-market crash: a 20%+ plunge.
For the London index to record a correction, it would need to hit 9,841.45. That’s a slide of 3.2% from its current level. I can see this happening if this new Gulf war drags on.
That said, for the FTSE 100 to crash, it would have to collapse to 8,747.95. That’s 13.9% below its current position. While this is certainly feasible, something nasty might have to happen for things to get this bad.
Then again, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has surged 24.5% in the last week. On Monday morning, it briefly spurted close to $120, before falling back to below $104 as I write. In the past, sustained uplifts in the oil price have harmed global growth and triggered steep falls in share prices.
In my view, the FTSE 100 doesn’t look crazily cheap right now, either in historical or geographical terms. Indeed, it could easily be argued that investors could gain cheap exposure to global growth by buying into Footsie businesses.
For example, here’s one British company that my family portfolio owns for juicy dividends and potential capital growth.
BP: bold play?
For the record, we bought BP (LSE: BP.) shares for our family portfolio in August 2023, partly as a hedge against higher oil prices. We paid 484.1p a share for our stake, attracted by the stock’s generous dividends.
As I write, BP shares trade at 506p, valuing the former British Petroleum at £78.8bn. To date, we are sitting on a modest paper gain of 4.5% — hardly thrilling. However, we have invested our quarterly dividends into buying more BP stock, which boosts our returns.
The BP share price is up 19.6% over six months and 20.9% over one year. Over five years, it has gained 56.4%, versus 50.9% for the wider FTSE 100. In short, it has seen steady (but far from spectacular) returns since spring 2021.
The above gains exclude dividends, which are a major component of the long-term returns from UK shares. BP’s current dividend yield is a tidy 4.8% a year, well above the 3.1% a year on offer from the Footsie.
If oil supplies from the Middle East continue to fall or get cut off, then I’d expect the oil price to soar again. In these circumstances, I’d also expect the BP share price to rise over time.
Finally, this 117-year-old energy firm is in transition, with new CEO Meg O’Neill set to take the reins in April 2026. Like many new bosses, she may set BP on a new course, perhaps triggering short-term uncertainty. Likewise, the inexorable move from fossil fuels to renewable energy creates huge challenges for the group.
Even so, I have no intention of selling our BP shares at current prices and may even buy more!
