Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) shares have soared over 150% in the past five years. But it looks like Metro Bank Holdings (LSE: MTRO) might be about to eclipse it, if analyst forecasts are anything to go by.
The Metro share price is down a disappointing 15% over five years. But part of that is due to a painful crash in late 2023. Back then, the bank was losing money, and was offloading assets in order to stay afloat.
Metro’s IPO in 2016 had been an acclaimed success, and the shares reach a price of over £40 at the peak. Today we’re looking at a 97% wipeout since those days. But from the low point of 2023, the shares have already more than quadrupled. And there could be more to come.
Full-year 2025 earnings are due on 4 March, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to increase 28%. And forecasts suggest a further trebling by 2027. We might even see a dividend in 2027 — only a small one, but maybe the start of something good.
Banking bonanza?
Based on analyst forecasts, Metro shares are on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16. That seems a bit high even by FTSE 100 bank standards, never mind smaller FTSE 250 challenger banks. By comparison, even after Lloyds’ sparkling few years, we’re still looking at a P/E there of under 11 — and I reckon that’s close to fully valued now.
But even if Metro’s predicted EPS rise comes off when we have those results, analysts still expect a further trebling on top of that by 2027. It could push the EPS up almost fourfold from the last set of results we currently have, from 2024.
Can Metro live up to expectations on 4 March? At the time of November’s third-quarter update, the bank reaffirmed “all guidance for FY 2025 and beyond“. CEO Daniel Frumkin added: “We have the lowest cost of deposits of any UK High Street bank, and our exit net Interest margin is already within full year guidance range.” The chances look good to me.
Better than Lloyds?
Lloyds is no slouch on the forecast front, with EPS expected to climb around 70% by 2027. And if that’s what happens, we could see a P/E of around nine by then. Depending on how the outlook is faring — interest rate cuts could damage Lloyds’ lending profit — that could be cheap. And if it drops under eight in 2028 as forecast, I’ll consider topping up my Lloyds stake.
But right now, I think Lloyds shares have moved off my list of potential buys in 2026. And Metro Bank is a definite candidate for a little of this year’s ISA money. If I buy, it’ll only be a small amount, because of the higher risk that smaller banks face. They don’t have anything like the financial resources to battle through an economic downturn with the relative ease Lloyds and the other big ones can.
Should investors consider putting a bit into Metro Bank in 2026? I think they might do well to.
