Investors (myself included) are increasingly seeing Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as not just a car company. Rather, it’s pushing ahead with AI, including robotics. When it comes to Tesla stock, its humanoid robot project (Optimus) and robotaxis are now viewed as major future value drivers. So if robots do really take off globally in the coming couple of years, what does it mean for the stock price?
The best-case scenario
Let’s say Optimus is developed to a point where the device can be sold for $20k-$30k, as some suggest. This would make it affordable for many. Tesla already has plans for limited sales in 2026, with the goal to ramp up production to a million units per year. If it can achieve this, at a $25k price point, that’s an additional $25bn in annual revenue. For perspective, it generated $94.83bn in revenue for 2025. Therefore, it represents a significant financial boost to the company.
More than that, it’s a completely new stream of income for the business. It’s not detracting from car sales, rather, it can provide a new area of growth going forward. Investors would likely see this as beneficial not only for future profits, but also for diversifying the risk away from other operations.
If robots do become mainstream, the management team’s focus is likely to pivot to this area. As a result, it could cause investors to value the business more like an AI company or a software platform. At the moment, these areas carry higher valuations than car companies, based on the growth trajectory.
It’s hard to pin down a specific level for Tesla’s stock to reach in this scenario. But if we assume the robotics arm has the same profit margin as the rest of the firm, we could be looking at at least a 25% rise in profits. But I think the size of the move could be 100% or more, based more on speculative buying from investors who get excited about the multi-decade potential.
The other side
There’s the potential that the stock might not explode for a few reasons. First, it’s already up 36% over the past year. I believe some of this move reflects optimism already building about Optimus and robotaxis. After all, the mood around EVs right now isn’t enough to carry the share price higher.
Last month, Elon Musk warned that initial robot production would be “agonisingly slow” to start with, before ramping up. If the company suffers from supply chain constraints and slow scaling, it could disappoint investors. Let’s also not forget that Tesla isn’t the only company racing to get ahead in the robotics space. Other firms (particularly in China) are investing heavily right now. If competitors dominate cheaper mass-market robots, Tesla’s margins could suffer.
Balancing everything out, I feel Tesla is in the best place to capitalise on a surge in robot rollout that could occur within the next few years. I believe the stock is likely to outperform, even with competition risks. On that basis, it’s a stock that investors could consider if they agree with my view.
