It would be easy to think a stock market crash looks a million miles away. Only two days ago (11 February), the FTSE 100 broke past the 10,450 mark to set another all-time high. The S&P 500 climbed to within a hair of its own record high around the 7,000 mark.
Everything is hunky-dory, isn’t it?
To start with, stock market highs are a touch misleading. The major indexes are not inflation-adjusted. This makes comparing the present to the past a bit thorny in our modern inflationary society. It’s a bit like saying minimum wage is at record highs. Yes, it technically is, but it hardly tells the whole story.
Here are some interesting facts on this about the S&P 500. In an average year, an all-time high is reached on 17 different trading days! What’s more, the market is within 5% of its all-time high nearly half the time.
Clues?
There are other clues to foreseeing a spot of market turbulence however. And one of them may be kicking into gear in February 2025. I am talking about the recent disruption of certain stocks like London Stock Exchange Group (LSE: LSEG).
As recently as early 2025, LSEG looked like one of the FTSE 100‘s brightest lights. Here we had a forward-focused tech company that provided valuable financial data across the world. The valuation priced it as a stock with a bright future.
So what happened? Artificial intelligence happened – specifically the possibility that the latest models of AI could eat the company’s breakfast, lunch and dinner. When Anthropic released its newest model with tools that might replace legal and financial analysis, the stock lost 13% in a day. The shares are down 37% in the last year as AI fears have heightened.
Is this an overreaction? Possibly. Little has changed with the business itself. And – should AI prove all mouth and no trousers – this could end up being one of the biggest bargains going.
LSEG is not the only company in the AI crosshairs either. The share prices of Rightmove (down 47% since August) and RELX (down 50% since May) are two other notable examples of cratering share prices.
Early signs
There’s also the threat of all this money being spent on AI being wasted. It’s early, but returns on investment are looking shockingly low. A stock to keep an eye on in this regard might be US giant Microsoft. The share price dropped 18% in a week recently after worries about overspending on AI.
If these really are the early signs of a crash, then those of us who have been watching the markets know this is often where the best opportunities are. For example, the best time to invest in UK stocks in recent years was when the world was collapsing during the days of comparing a certain Ms Truss to a decaying vegetable.
Where could be the place to look for bargains? I’ve been keeping an eye on a number of interesting bank and mining stocks; both sectors should be resilient even if a crash does come. And I’m bullish on the turnaround of UK housebuilders, although I wouldn’t be surprised if that comes later rather than sooner.
