HSBC (LSE: HSBA) shares have tripled in price in the past five years. However, with further strong earnings growth forecast, they could still be significantly undervalued.
The stock also delivers solid dividend yields, which are also projected to rise on improving profits, margins, and capital returns.
So what returns could be made with small, regular investments by long-term investors?
How does the core business look?
A risk to HSBC’s earnings is declining interest rates in its key markets. These affect the margin earned on lending versus deposits, making profits more volatile than in some other sectors.
That said, consensus forecasts are that its earnings will grow strongly over the medium term, at least.
Analysts expect this to be driven by HSBC’s shift toward higher yielding assets and lower cost funding. This lifts the margin earned between lending and deposits. It includes reducing exposure to low‑return Western operations and growing its loan book in higher‑margin Asian markets.
Rising fee income from wealth management and transaction banking is also expected to support strong earnings growth.
Its full-year 2024 results saw fee-based wealth and personal banking deliver over a third of its profits. Overall, pre-tax profit for the year hit $32.3bn (£24.6bn), up $2bn from 2023.
Its Q3 2025 numbers showed a 15% rise in profit before tax over the previous quarter to $7.295bn. The bank subsequently raised its return on tangible equity target for 2025 to mid-teens or better, from mid-teens only.
What difference can £5 a day make?
It is often said that stock investing is only for the wealthy, requiring large sums to make an impact. This simply is not true.
In fact, £5 a day (£150 a month) can make a difference in the short and long term.
Put into HSBC shares averaging a 5.3% yield (as they are currently), this would generate £5,879 in dividends after 10 years. This also assumes the dividends are reinvested into the stock to harness the dividend compounding effect.
Over 30 years on the same basis (which is not guaranteed), the dividend income alone would rise to £79,164. At that point, the total holding (including deposits) would be worth £133,314. And it would be paying a yearly dividend income of £7,066.
Share price gains too?
A bullish price run does not mean there is no value in a share. Price is whatever the market pays at any moment, whereas value reflects underlying business fundamentals.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses these fundamentals, reflected in future cash flow forecasts, to determine where a share should be priced. It also incorporates earnings-growth projections, with the consensus here being around 12.6% a year for the next three years.
Assuming these forecasts are correct — which is never guaranteed — and using a discount rate of 10.3%, my DCF modelling implies HSBC’s fair value is £18.16 per share. That is 32% above the current price.
Because asset prices can gravitate toward fair value over time, this suggests a potentially attractive buying opportunity if forecasts prove accurate.
My investment view
Given the strong earnings growth outlook for HSBC and what this could mean for share-price gains — alongside its high dividend yield — I will add to my holding shortly.
For the same reasons, I think the stock is well worth consideration by other investors.
