Prediction: this S&P 500 sector could produce the best returns in 2026

Jon Smith puts big tech to one side and talks about why he sees another sector from the S&P 500 providing the strongest returns this year.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Playful senior couple in aprons dancing and smiling while preparing healthy dinner at home

Image source: Getty Images

Over the past year, the best-performing S&P 500 sector was communication services, followed by information technology. This might not surprise some, but with us now in 2026, I don’t think either of those two areas will be the best place to invest. Rather, I think it could be another sector that could steal the limelight this year!

An easy pill to swallow

My pick for 2026 is healthcare. Last year, it jumped 12.4%. Healthcare demand isn’t tied directly to the economic cycle the way other sectors are. For example, consumer discretionary or industrials are much more dependent on how well the broader US economy’s doing. But when it comes to medicine, people still need care regardless of the economic backdrop.

Yet it’s not just a defensive pick for 2026. The sector’s seeing large-scale breakthroughs that could really boost related stocks. A big one I’m thinking of is the rise of GLP-1 obesity and diabetes drugs. Another one is making use of AI for faster and more accurate drug discovery and diagnostics.

Finally, I think the valuation’s attractive. The largest healthcare sector ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.49. This contrasts with the broader S&P 500 average of 31.28. So by thinking about where the best value is right now, healthcare again ranks highly.

Of course, this is just my view. The sector might not be the best in the index if the AI build-out continues. If investor optimism remains high, communication services (including Meta and Alphabet) could steal the show. Or if interest rates fall faster than anticipated, the real estate sector and related US stocks could see large investor interest.

Specific targets

It’s possible to buy a sector tracker and invest passively. There’s nothing wrong with this, but I think some individual shares look particularly attractive. Eli Lilly‘s (NYSE:LLY) a good example here.

The stock’s surged 39% over the last year, fuelled by demand in GLP-1 products such as Mounjaro and Zepbound. Revenue in Q3 increased 54% versus the same period last year to $17.6bn, with these drugs specifically called out in driving this. Further, with the potential for much more widespread adoption, some of the share price increase is based on the future revenue potential.

Beyond obesity therapies, Lilly has an expanding pipeline in oncology and other therapeutic areas. Another appeal of owning the stock is the diversification of revenue. It’s a broad-based healthcare company, so if the sector as a whole does well, Eli Lilly stock should mirror the performance.

In terms of risks, there’s growing pressure from US regulators to lower drug costs. This could impact profit margins going forward for the company.

Even with this concern, I think it’s a stock for investors to consider, as a way to get exposure to the sector.

Jon Smith has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Alphabet and Meta Platforms. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on US Stock

Investor looking at stock graph on a tablet with their finger hovering over the Buy button
Investing Articles

Jim Cramer is bullish on NIO stock at $5! Should I buy it for my ISA?

NIO stock is trading 26% lower than a few months ago, despite just posting a historic quarter. It it time…

Read more »

Night Takeoff Of The American Space Shuttle
Investing Articles

Should I buy Nasdaq stock Micron for my ISA after blowout Q2 earnings?

Nasdaq tech stock Micron is generating incredible revenue growth at the moment amid the AI boom. Yet it still looks…

Read more »

Sun setting over a traditional British neighbourhood.
Investing Articles

UK investors should consider buying shares in Uber. Here’s why

Uber shares could be a great fit for long-term UK investors that are looking to generate capital growth, says Edward…

Read more »

Black woman using smartphone at home, watching stock charts.
US Stock

3 huge pieces of news that could impact the Nvidia share price

Jon Smith talks through some key reveals and implications for the Nvidia share price from the company conference taking place…

Read more »

Middle-aged white male courier delivering boxes to young black lady
Investing Articles

Amazon shares: overpriced or a possible bargain?

Christopher Ruane thinks Amazon shares look pricier than he normally likes -- but also reckons they could be a potential…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£7,500 invested in Nvidia stock 18 months ago is now worth…

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has run out of steam lately despite profits still soaring. Could this be a lucrative buying opportunity…

Read more »

Close-up of a woman holding modern polymer ten, twenty and fifty pound notes.
US Stock

As the S&P 500 tumbles, this stock continues to soar

Jon Smith takes a deep-dive into a farming stock that's jumped 23% so far this year, easily beating the S&P…

Read more »

Young black colleagues high-fiving each other at work
Investing Articles

With a P/E ratio of 11, could buying this stock be like investing in Meta Platforms in 2022?

I think Adobe shares today look a lot like Meta stock in October 2022. Could this be another chance for…

Read more »