The Vodafone (LSE: VOD) share price has had a great 2025, up 42% at the time of writing. But we could see the same again in 2026, according to a December upgrade from Deutsche Bank that puts a 140p price target on the stock.
A few days earlier, Barclays issued its own target of 120p. That’s less ambitious, but it would still mean a welcome 24% gain. And these are relatively short-term targets, which might even be raised as the year progresses.
Analysts disagree
Before we go thinking the experts are so optimistic about Vodafone that we should immediately rush off and buy, let’s step back a bit and look around more widely. These two upbeat opinions were posted just a few weeks after JP Morgan issued a Sell recommendation, with a Vodafone share price target of just 71p.
That’s a huge divergence, with the latest recommendation suggesting a price of almost twice someone else’s recent judgment. These are the experts who spend their time in research, with all the latest data and analysis at their fingertips. And they’re that widely apart!
It reinforces a key Motley Fool priority that you’ll find near the bottom of this page. It’s the one where “we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors“. Whether Vodafone shares rise or fall, at least one of these three top analysts will be wildly wrong on price.
Our own research
As long-term investors, we can do better to form our own opinions on the fundamental strength of a company. And prioritise that over short-term broker recommendations and price targets.
On that basis, I see some solid reasons to consider Vodafone, even after its strong year. The main one is the dividend, forecast to yield 4% this year. In November the company said it expects to lift it 2.5% this year. That’s after saying “we are now expecting to deliver at the upper end of our guidance range for both profit and cash flow, and as our anticipated multi-year growth trajectory is now under way“.
It does come after Vodafone slashed its dividend in half in 2025. But that was long overdue, as the company had been stubbornly paying out more than it could afford for years. I rate the new progressive dividend policy as significantly more reliable than before, as the cash appears to be there. We’ve already seen €3bn in buybacks since May 2024, with a further €1bn yet to be completed.
Check the balance sheet
My biggest fear is around Vodafone’s debt, which rose to €25.9bn at the halfway stage — almost equivalent to Vodafone’s market-cap. There’s a headline forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 for 2026, dropping to 12 by 2027. But debt-adjusted values come in at around twice those figures.
High debt plus those higher implied valuations put me off buying. But if Vodafone can service its debt efficiently enough and keep returning cash — which I think it can — I still see it as a worthwhile consideration for long-term dividend investors.
