Tesco (LSE:TSCO) shares were already on the march as we entered the New Year, gaining roughly 48% in the previous 18 months.
Yet they’ve kept on going up this year, jumping another 21.5% to sit just under a 12-year high. This means anyone who invested £5,000 in the UK’s leading supermarket on 1 January would now have almost £6,100.
On top of this, Tesco has paid two dividends — in June and November — which would have added almost £200 to the return. So the total value would be £6,275 (excluding any trading fees). Solid stuff.
The question now is, can Tesco do it again in 2026?
Why has the stock been rising?
Looking back across the year, one thing that stands out is that Tesco has consolidated its dominant market share. In the 12 weeks to 1 December 2024, the FTSE 100 supermarket had already achieved its highest market share since December 2017 (at 28.1%).
Yet the latest industry data (covering the 12 weeks to 30 November 2025) shows Tesco’s sales rose 4.7%, taking its share to 28.3%.
Now, a 20 basis points gain might not sound much, but it’s quite impressive, especially in an intensely competitive market like the UK grocery sector. It means that any gains made by the German discounters (Aldi and Lidl) are not at Tesco’s expense.
Moreover, the discounts started by Asda and Morrisons at the start of the year haven’t snowballed into a price war. And data shows that Asda has continued to struggle, losing market share to rivals despite lower prices.
To be honest, this doesn’t surprise me. I normally shop at Tesco, but when I visited a local Asda café recently, I was pretty shocked at the sorry state it was in. I can see why it’s losing customers, and why Tesco is so far ahead (Asda is still the third-biggest supermarket, just in front of Aldi).
In Tesco’s H1 25/26 results (covering the 26 weeks to 23 August), like-for-like sales were up 4.3%, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 6.8% to 15.43p. Impressively, the interim dividend was hiked 12.9% to 4.8p per share.
Looking ahead to 2026
So, how might Tesco stock perform next year? Well, I wouldn’t write it off, with CEO Ken Murphy anticipating a strong Christmas period.
And through a combination of the Clubcard, the popular Finest range, and a well-oiled delivery service, more market share gains could be ahead in 2026. That would probably boost sentiment for the shares.
That said, the price of food in the UK remains a concern. I know… I’ve been baulking at the ridiculous price of chocolate recently.
Worldpanel data shows grocery inflation held steady at 4.7% in the four weeks to 30 November. Combine this with rising bills, and shoppers are still under the cosh. So this adds a bit of risk moving forward.
What do City analysts see for 2026? Currently, they have an average price target of 476p, which is only 6.1% above the present level.
This makes sense, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio at 14.5, which is probably near fair value for Tesco stock.
As such, I don’t see it rising 21% again next year. And with the forecast dividend yield at a modest 3.5%, I have other FTSE 100 stocks on my radar right now.
