Large-cap FTSE shares have vastly outperformed this year, with the UK’s flagship FTSE 100 index reaching a new record high in November. And we’ve seen some massive winners since January, including:
- Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) – up 318%.
- Airtel Africa – up 172%.
- Rolls-Royce – up 78%.
Sadly, as all experienced investors know, past performance rarely serves as a good indicator for future results. So the question is, can these winners and the market in general continue to maintain their momentum into 2026?
Too late to buy?
With economic uncertainty creeping in both here in the UK and abroad, there’s a growing fear of a potential market sell-off. After all, weaker consumer spending combined with near-record high valuations doesn’t exactly scream sustainable gains.
Yet while it might be tempting to simply wait for the next crash or correction, this could be a costly mistake. Why? Because trying to accurately predict the next downturn is a borderline impossible task that even the experts constantly fail at.
For example, Jeremy Grantham’s been calling for a market crash ever since mid-2023. And despite his prophecy of a 70% probability at the time, anyone who listened has since missed out on some enormous gains, including a 43% rise for passive FTSE 100 index investors.
So is it too late to buy shares? No.
But that doesn’t mean investors should start blindly buying stocks without considering the risks against the potential rewards. So let’s take a closer look at 2025’s biggest FTSE winner – Fresnillo.
Should I invest in Fresnillo?
As one of the largest precious metals miners in Mexico, Fresnillo has thrived in an environment of economic uncertainty. After all, when inflation comes knocking, demand for gold surges. And in 2025, that’s pushed the price of the yellow metal beyond $4,200 per ounce!
Since digging gold out of the ground incurs fixed costs, higher commodity prices have sent Fresnillo’s profit margins through the roof, allowing the business to almost quadruple its earnings across the first half of 2025. With that in mind, it’s understandable why the Fresnillo share price similarly soared.
However, that immediately highlights a potential problem. If gold prices were to suddenly reverse – something that has happened multiple times in the past – the group’s profits would swiftly follow.
Even if gold prices remain stable, there’s the ongoing regulatory uncertainty surrounding this business. In Mexico, there’s growing political pressure against the mining industry, particularly for open-pit projects, many of which are in Fresnillo’s portfolio.
To management’s credit, the company’s using this recent gold rush to kick-start its first step towards geographical diversification with a £560m acquisition attempt for Probe Gold – a Canadian late-stage gold exploration enterprise. But even if this deal’s completed, it could be several years before commercial production begins outside Mexico.
Where does that leave investors? It seems unlikely that Fresnillo shares will deliver yet another 300% gain over the next 12 months. But while global economic uncertainty remains elevated, there’s a higher probability that gold prices will remain stable.
As for Mexico’s regulatory risk, that remains a significant threat. But for investors with a higher risk tolerance, it may be prudent to dig deeper and see if it’s worth the potential reward. And there are plenty of other winning FTSE shares to explore as well.
