Like many FTSE 100 stocks, BT (LSE:BT.A) shares have had a good year, rising by over 20% since January. And when throwing dividends into the mix, shareholders have earned a total return of 24.3%.
To put this into perspective, that means anyone who invested £15,000 at the start of the year now has £18,645 sat in their portfolio. That’s a pretty robust profit considering BT has historically been a rather boring, mature and steady enterprise.
Of course, the question now becomes, can the UK telecommunications giant continue to outperform in 2026? Here’s what the experts are saying.
BT share price forecasts
Being among the most popular FTSE 100 stocks, BT receives a lot of attention from institutional investors. And right now, opinions seem to be somewhat split, with nine recommending the share as a Buy while five say it’s a Sell.
What’s going on?
Let’s start with the bull case. With leadership executing a strategic transformation of operations, the group’s financials have been on the mend. In the six months leading to September, BT has already achieved £247m in gross annualised savings ahead of expectations.
Zooming out to the last 18 months, that brings the total to £1.2bn. And another £1.8bn is expected to emerge in the coming years.
At the same time, investments made into its telecommunication infrastructure appear to also be paying off. With repair volumes falling by double-digits, customer experience is also on the rise, judging by the firm’s net promoter score.
In terms of financials, revenue growth remains elusive – largely due to the company transitioning its existing customers from its legacy products to modern fibre and 5G solutions.
However, with these newer technologies being more profitable, free cash flow generation has remained stable, on track to reach £1.5bn by March 2026 before rising to £2bn in the next fiscal year.
Assuming these targets are hit, that would provide BT with enough financial flexibility to finally begin tackling its debt. And with a promising outlook, some analysts are projecting BT shares could climb to as high as 312p by this time next year – a 75% potential increase!
Not everyone’s convinced
The company has a fairly poor track record when it comes to execution. And a top concern among more bearish investors is whether or not the investments being made to improve infrastructure will actually translate into growth and shareholder value creation.
Even if customer experience improves, it doesn’t change the fact that telecommunications remains a highly competitive market. And that could mean BT is forced to sacrifice its margin expansion to remain competitively priced.
Needless to say, that could dramatically delay the group’s financial turnaround, potentially causing BT to miss its own medium- and long-term targets. And subsequently, some analysts have placed their share price forecasts as low as 135p – roughly 25% below where BT shares are trading today.
What to do?
Investing in BT today is very much a bet on whether new-ish CEO Allison Kirkby can fix the fundamentals of this business. So far, she seems to be doing a good job with the share price climbing by 60% since she took over in early 2024.
In my eyes, that merits closer inspection. But there are also other turnaround stocks showing even more promising progress.
