With so many things — including our very own FTSE 100 — hitting fresh record highs in 2025, it was inevitable that concerns about markets overheating would arise.
So, I decided to ask ChatGPT which stocks are the most vulnerable to a crash.
The AI bot’s top four suggestions were as follows:
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Glencore
- Barclays
- Melrose Industries
But I think the fifth name put forward is particularly interesting.
Surely some mistake?
British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines (LSE: IAG) shares have taken off in 2025. We’re talking about a gain of 40%.
It’s not just the last eleven or so months that have been great. Those brave enough to buy back in 2020 will have seen their stakes grow by around 300% as global travel bounced back. Oh, and this doesn’t take into account the dividends received in September 2024 and June this year.
It’s examples like this that show why we like taking a long-term approach at Fool UK.
Given such a superb recovery, it’s not surprising that the company hasn’t really featured in any of the doom-laden commentary I’ve been seeing online.
Ironically, most of that has been reserved for the owner of ChatGPT and those tech giants heavily investing in AI.
So, why is this FTSE 100 stock at risk?
According to the bot, IAG, as it’s called, is vulnerable because it’s totally dependent on discretionary consumer and business travel. That dependency can be a nightmare during the bad times because its one of those expenses that’s easy for us to cut.
The problem is that the £19bn cap business can’t easily reduce costs itself. A lack of flyers is irrelevant; it still faces substantial outlays that come from maintaining aircraft, paying staff, and hedging fuel costs. Again, this explains why IAG’s balance sheet exploded with debt during the pandemic.
So far, so fairly obvious. But shouldn’t the current fears about an impending market crash be sending the shares down rather than up?
Still cheap
Well, IAG’s positive momentum could be because analysts are optimistic about what the firm could say in its next update — due to land this Friday (7 November).
Back in September, IAG announced Q2 profit of €1.68bn — far more than the €1.4bn anticipated. This was partly down to strong demand for transatlantic flights, helping to reduce concerns over the impact of President Trump’s tariff war.
If there’s evidence this has continued, there could be more gains ahead. After all, the shares still trade at a below-average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of seven.
My point is that there’s no rule to say IAG share must fall from here, even if other stocks do. It depends on what the catalyst for a crash is.
Forget the bot
It goes without saying that I never use AI to make investment decisions. In addition to not knowing my own preferences, risk tolerance, or financial goals, it can never replace proper research on a company.
ChatGPT also doesn’t know where share prices are going any more than we do. All of the five named here could finish 2025 higher than where they are now.
Personally, I think there are other FTSE 100 shares with far higher price tags that could also be in for a reckoning if (and that’s a huge ‘if’) markets collapse.
