Now that large language models have access to live data, they’re even more valuable for investors. They can be used to summarise news articles and even make up-to-date predictions. Take FTSE 100 bank Lloyds (LSE: LLOY), for instance. The stock has been flying, doubling in value since early 2024. I can use the intellectual horsepower of neural nets to get a prediction of whether it will keep surging, or whether it is a stock to avoid.
I asked, “Where will the Lloyds shares price be in 2030?” And here’s what it said:
The answer
Based on what I see, I’d cautiously estimate that by 2030:
— A base (mid) case might put Lloyds around 100-130p (i.e., £1.00 to £1.30)
— A bull case (strong growth, benign credit environment, good regulatory outcome) might push it to 150p or more
— A bear case (UK recession, legal/regulatory costs, high defaults) might leave it around 60-90p, or possibly lower
Before I begin to break down these figures, it’s worth pointing out that relying on large language models for accurate data is not a good idea. They still hallucinate. They’re still often ‘confidently wrong’. They aren’t reliable, basically. Therefore I’m looking at this as more of a springboard than anything else, a jumping off point for better research.
Back to those predictions. On the lower end, ChatGPT is suggesting the share price won’t fall by too much at all. On the high end, the share price nearly doubles in the next five years. Not bad!
If we were to take this as gospel (which we admittedly cannot), then this would be handsome returns paired with the expected dividends over the period. Lloyds is paying a generous 4.01% at the moment, a figure expected to rise in the coming years too. The 2026 forecasted yield is set to rise by 30% on today’s figure!
Given the rampant optimism, I am curious about the justification for such bullish projections. As I pressed it for details, ChatGPT explained its reasoning across three general areas.
A buy?
Here are the three: the uk economy, interest rates, and digitisation.
As a large domestic lender, Lloyds is tied to the fate of the uk economy more than most other FTSE 100 stocks. Given the stagnant state of British growth since 2008, especially on per capita terms, I’d call this a strike against.
Interest rates are a huge boon, though. They’re the primary reason for the recent success, for the bumper earnings, and for some impressive forecasts. Revenue is expected to rise 20% in the next two years and earnings to rise 35%. This is a strike for.
Where things get really interesting – and really hard to predict – is the digitisation. ChatGPT mentions efficiency savings that can be met through shifting to online services. It also hints at the use of artificial intelligence to cut costs, too. If AI does have the impact some are claiming then many companies may feel the benefit, Lloyds among them.
All in all, I think this is a stock to consider. Let’s cross our fingers that ChatGPT is on the money with that bull case.
