Less than a year ago, the Greggs (LSE:GRG) share price was trading close to £30. But since then, the beloved British bakery chain has seen its market cap wiped almost in half. Its price was £17.45 at Friday (18 July) close. This downward trajectory came as a result of rising costs, slower growth, and fears of market saturation – concerns that have only been amplified in 2025 following two profit warnings.
But despite the troubles surrounding this business, it remains a highly cash-generative enterprise. And with management continuing to ramp up supply chain and logistics investments despite the slowdown, it suggests the company is preparing for a rebound.
So, what needs to happen for the share price to bounce back to the £30 level?
Exploring future potential
It’s worth remembering that a big part of Greggs’ earlier valuation came largely as a result of strong positive investor sentiment. The stock was, after all, trading at a premium. So, for Greggs shares to recover to previous levels, a return of positive sentiment will likely be needed. And there are a few ways the company might achieve this.
Despite its growth challenges, if Greggs can demonstrate its ability to continue taking market share in the on-the-go food sector, bearish investors might be forced to re-evaluate their positions. Similarly, while there’s been some backlash against the firm’s recent price hikes, this may not matter if sales volumes continue to climb.
Another strategy that management has seemingly begun exploring is premiumisation. By selling new, higher-margin products alongside its traditional offerings, it opens the door to a product mix that bolsters margins. And if profitability shows tangible improvement, it would send a clear signal that Greggs has more financial flexibility to pass on some of the new inflationary costs to customers.
That’s particularly important given the firm employs over 32,000 workers, a large portion of whom are on minimum wage, which just got hiked earlier this year.
Combining all these factors with continued execution through digital ordering channels could renew confidence among investors, gradually elevating the Greggs share price back towards the £30 mark.
Taking a step back
These routes to market expansion are obviously easier said than done. And right now, it’s difficult to judge whether these tactics are actually delivering results, given the unfavourable weather conditions suffered at the beginning and middle of 2025.
There’s no denying that the weather has impacted Greggs’ business. But whether it’s solely to blame for the slowdown is where the uncertainty lies. And a brewing concern among analysts is that the problems might actually lie in poor execution. Time will ultimately tell.
So, where does that leave investors today?
I remain cautiously optimistic. Ignoring the growth concerns, Greggs as a business seems to be in a relatively healthy state, navigating through a tough operating environment. And providing that bad weather truly is to blame, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock eventually recover back to £30 in the future.
However, in my opinion, that journey could be a lengthy one. So, for investors with little patience, it may be worth considering other opportunities right now.
