The Dow Jones index doesn’t get as much attention compared to other leading US indices. Yet despite this lack of relative popularity, it’s home to plenty of phenomenal winners. And among its top performers, Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) proven to be a millionaire-making investment.
In fact, since June 2005, the share price is up 15,184%! On an annualised basis, that’s the equivalent of 28.6% — almost triple the 10.3% average annual return the Dow generated over the same period.
To put this into perspective, a £10,000 investment in 2005 is now worth £1,528,440. And that’s before factoring in the extra gains from dividends received along the way. But with so much growth already under its belt, could Apple continue being a market-beater in the coming years? Here’s what the experts are saying.
Analysts are still bullish
Since the start of 2025, Apple shares have slid by around 20% on the back of growing uncertainty regarding a US-China trade deal. However, despite this potential headwind, analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS remain exceptionally bullish, with share price targets of $294 and $270 respectively.
At the heart of these predictions lies the expected iPhone upgrade cycle that’s anticipated to kick off in late 2025, extending into 2026 as well as 2027. This comes off the back of the latest wave of artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced iPhones. And while both analysts addressed the China dependency issue, the company’s steady manufacturing diversification into India and South East Asia could help minimise and offset this impact.
Pairing all this with the firm’s continued customer loyalty to the Apple brand and the firm’s reputation for top-notch quality, the bullish stance makes a lot of sense. However, it’s important to recognise that even with a robust ecosystem of products, there are still some problematic challenges on the horizon.
The bear case
The expected iPhone upgrade cycle may be a bit late to the party if Apple can’t deliver on the promised power of its new AI tools. So far, the company’s foray into AI has received a bit of a lukewarm response, with its innovations seemingly falling behind competitors like Microsoft and Google.
Another potential source of delay is the state of the American economy. The impact of the new tariff-based US trade policy could drive up the cost of Apple devices as well as put more pressure on American consumers. And this nasty combination could lead to a disappointing refresh cycle where iPhone sales growth falls short of expectations.
The bottom line
Looking at the current price-to-earnings ratio, the expected growth from an iPhone device refresh cycle seems to already be baked into the Apple share price. At the same time, investors don’t appear to be factoring in the growing geopolitical headwinds that could hamper economic growth in the short term. Given Apple’s dependence on the American consumer, it seems unwise to discount this potential threat.
With that in mind, I think it’s wise for investors to consider keeping Apple shares on their watchlists for now. In the meantime, there are plenty of other Dow Jones businesses showing interesting potential.
