Value stocks in aerospace… yes, please!

Dr James Fox takes a closer look at two value stocks operating in the aerospace and defence sector. He thinks they both could be undervalued.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Young Caucasian woman with pink her studying from her laptop screen

Image source: Getty Images

Melrose Industries (LSE:MRO) and Airbus are both major players in the aerospace sector, albeit the former being much smaller than the latter. However, I also believe they’re both rather exciting value stocks, providing exposure to a fast-growing sector with secular trends contributing to strong expected earnings growth.

And by secular trends, I’m referring to rising global air traffic, a growing middle class, and surging demand for more efficient, sustainable aircraft. Advancements in digital technologies, artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are transforming manufacturing and maintenance, while defence spending and aftermarket services provide resilient long-term growth opportunities for the sector.

What’s more, both companies are executing ambitious growth strategies and, crucially, their forward-looking financial metrics suggest the market may be underestimating their long-term potential.

A future Rolls-Royce?

Starting with Melrose, the company’s transformation into a pureplay aerospace specialist is already showing results. In 2024, adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) surged 45% to 26.4p, with operating profit up 38% and margins expanding.

Management has set a bold, but achievable, target of more than 20% annual EPS growth through to 2029. Noting the starting point, this could lead us to adjusted EPS between 65.7p and 80.6p by then, depending on the growth scenario.

Even using 2023 as the starting point, EPS could reach 55.8p to 71.3p. With shares trading at 475p, this implies a forward 2029 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio between just 5.9 times and 8.5 times. I’d suggest that’s remarkably low for a business with a strong economic moat and one with claims 70% of its revenue comes from products where it’s the sole producer.

Moreover, the forward price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio also points to severe undervaluation. Using the forward P/E ratio of 13.7 times for 2025, and a 20% earnings growth rate, the PEG ratio comes in a 0.69.

Yes, the company’s carrying a significant amount of debt. — £1.3bn. And if things don’t go to plan, that’s a bit of a concern. However, even factoring in the debt, the PEG ratio’s significantly under one, and far below the global industrials sector average of around 1.8.

The stock might not grow 1,000% like Rolls-Royce has from its nadir, but it absolutely could surge. I think we just need to see some solid earnings beats (beating expectations) in order to gain the market’s attention.

Quality at discount

As for Airbus, which is listed in Europe, the financial story is one of steady improvement and growing shareholder returns. The stock currently trades at 24.6 times forward earnings for 2025. This falls to 20.2 in 2026, and just 17.6 by 2027 as earnings accelerate. Taking the forward P/E for 2025 and dividing it by earnings growth of 16%, we get a PEG ratio of 1.54. I don’t think that’s problematic considering its duopoly in aircraft manufacturing.

I’m sure investors will be keen to point out concerns relating to tariffs and even quality assurance. However for me, it remains a quality company with a strong net cash position — €11.8bn.

The bottom line

I believe both these stocks should be carefully considered by investors. I’m not the only bull either. Analysts currently see Airbus as undervalued by 13% and Melrose by 33%, suggesting meaningful appreciation in the near term.

James Fox has positions in Melrose Industries Plc and Rolls-Royce Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Melrose Industries Plc and Rolls-Royce Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Thin line graph
Investing Articles

I’m considering 2 stocks to buy while they’re trading at 50% below fair value

Mark Hartley breaks down his reasons for considering two British stocks to buy while they're trading at less than half…

Read more »

Female student sitting at the steps and using laptop
Investing Articles

I asked ChatGPT if the epic Lloyds share price surge is over and it said…

After a brilliant run Harvey Jones is wondering if the Lloyds share price is running out of steam. Then he…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The shocking ISA balance needed for £2,000 a month passive income in 2050

Andrew Mackie demonstrates how disciplined, long-term investing can help an ISA grow to generate a passive income of £2,000 a…

Read more »

UK coloured flags waving above large crowd on a stadium sport match.
Investing Articles

Down 40% with a P/E of 10.5! Are Greggs shares in deep value territory?

Harvey Jones is tempted to sink his teeth into Greggs shares at today's reduced valuation, but he's also wondering whether…

Read more »

A person holding onto a fan of twenty pound notes
Investing Articles

2 dirt-cheap dividend stocks to consider in March with 7% yields!

Looking for the best high-yield UK dividend stocks to buy? Here are two that keen income investor Royston Wild think…

Read more »

Passive income text with pin graph chart on business table
Investing Articles

How a £1,000 SIPP can turbocharge passive income goals

Ken Hall unpacks the benefits of investing through a SIPP, and a potential 25% retirement savings boost that investors are…

Read more »

A senior man using hiking poles, on a hike on a coastal path along the coastline of Cornwall.
Investing Articles

How much do you need in an ISA to earn a stunning £50k passive income in 2050?

Harvey Jones shows how long-term investing in FTSE 100 dividend growth stocks can potentially generate a super-sized passive income in…

Read more »

Yellow number one sitting on blue background
Investing Articles

Do Legal & General shares offer the FTSE 100’s best dividend?

Legal & General shares pay a higher dividend yield than any other FTSE 100 stock. But is it the whole…

Read more »