So what’s the best share to buy for a Stocks and Shares ISA at the moment? Should investors consider one that has taken a beating during recent market volatility? Or one that’s defied it?
Investors who prefer to buy winners, rather than go bargain hunting among the losers, might want to consider FTSE 100-listed African telecoms operator Airtel Africa (LSE: AAF). Its shares have climbed 15% in the last month, making it the second-best performer on the FTSE 100, trailing only gold miner Fresnillo.
Over the past year, the Airtel Africa share price has jumped 55%, and over five years it’s soared an astonishing 300%. Only Rolls-Royce (540%) and private equity firm 3i Group (356%) have done better in that timeframe.
Can Airtel Africa shares continue to fly?
Despite these gains, Airtel Africa remains a stock many investors overlook, possibly due to its volatility. It was hit hard by the slide of the Nigerian naira, which shrank revenues from one of its key markets, once converted back into sterling. The naira’s been sliding against the pound for 15 years, although it does seem to have stabilised in the last six months.
I took a closer look at Airtel Africa back in February when it was already surging on the back of a strong set of Q3 results, with revenue growth of 20.4% in constant currency. That translated to a 5.8% drop on a reported basis, due to FX shifts.
Airtel Africa was expanding at pace. Its total customer base grew 7.9% to 163.1m last year, with data subscribers surging 13.8% to 71.4m. Mobile money services were a major growth driver, with revenues jumping 29.6% in constant currency.
The company has also been rewarding shareholders, having launched a second $100m share buyback. I saw vast potential here, but as with any high-growth stock, there were plenty of risks too.
Share buybacks and a modest dividend
One concern I flagged in February was its rising debt, which had climbed from $3.28bn to $5.27bn in a year. The board also has to invest heavily in its network and digital services, as it looks to build smartphone penetration and data usage, both growing fast.
Telecoms is an inherently high-risk sector, judging by the ups and downs of FTSE 100 operators BT Group and Vodafone.
Despite Airtel Africa’s rapid rise, analysts aren’t convinced the rally will continue. The 11 analysts covering the stock have produced a median target of just over 157p. That’s about 5% below today’s 165p. Forecasts are often little more than educated guesses, but this suggests the excitement may be cooling.
With a modest trailing dividend yield of 2.88%, this stock’s primarily a growth play. And while I remain impressed by its performance, my view hasn’t changed much since February. It’s all too uncertain for me.
The stock has momentum, and for investors who believe in riding strong trends, Airtel Africa’s well worth considering. I wouldn’t say it’s the very best share to buy today though. It may have done rather too well for its own good, and the growth could slow for a while. There’s an exciting opportunity here, but it’s potentially volatile and as a contrarian investor, I feel I may have missed the boat.
