Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock continues to make lower-case fools out of Fools like me.
Back in November, I questioned whether it had become a meme stock at $320. I ended with, “I continue to admire Tesla as a business, but not the stock at $320, which I reckon is demonstrating meme-like qualities. As such, I think there are other more attractive growth shares for my money“.
Since then, the share price has risen 30% and now trades at $415!
Like Elon Musk’s superhuman work schedule, Tesla shares often defy logic. I knew that. More fool me.
So, should I eat some humble pie and just invest? Let’s dig in.
High multiples
Tesla shares are currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 15. In other words, investors are paying $15 for every $1 of Tesla’s revenue. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 120.
I’d be a hypocrite to pompously say that I would never invest at such ridiculous multiples. I recently took a small position in language learning firm Duolingo when the stock was trading at 20 times sales and a forward P/E above 100.
However, Tesla has stopped growing, at least for now, whereas Duolingo has been growing at a 40% clip.
Of course, I’m comparing apples to oranges here. But my point is that it might be a long time, if ever, before Tesla returns to posting top-line growth of 40%. Or the long-term 50% annual compound annual growth rate (CAGR) it was projecting in early 2021.
To some extent, that’s understandable, as Musk previously admitted in late 2023: “Yeah. I mean, at the risk of stating the obvious, it’s not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever or you will exceed the mass of the known universe.”
However, Tesla is valued like a ultra-high-growth company, which it isn’t anymore. This is why I’m reluctant to invest.
But it’s all about the robots, silly
Musk says the company will be churning out robotaxis in 2026. Then potentially humanoid robots after that.
To be sure, these are mind-boggling massive market opportunities, ones which I’m excited about, despite the technical and regulatory hurdles that need to be surmounted. It’s hard not to be excited after watching the Optimus Bot bartender pouring draft cocktails at the recent Tesla AI event!
Clearly, it is the future potential of these projects that forms the basis of the company’s high valuation today. However, it leaves me wondering how much of this is already priced in.
To give an opposite example, look at Alphabet stock, which trades at just 23 times forward earnings. Arguably, investors buying that stock are getting the core search, cloud, and YouTube businesses, which are all still growing, then all the other futuristic bets bundled in for free. That includes Waymo robotaxis (already doing thousands of driverless trips per day), quantum computing, and more.
Again, Tesla is the opposite of that. It is valued on the futuristic bets much more than the core EV and energy storage businesses. That doesn’t strike me as very attractive, which is why I’m going to give the stock a swerve.
