Nvidia stock: all that glitters is not always gold

As DeepSeek wipes $600bn from Nvidia’s market cap, Andrew Mackie assesses the future of the stock and the wider AI industry.

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They say that a week is a long time in politics. But with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock shedding the largest daily amount of market cap in US stock market history, one day must have felt like a lifetime for its shareholders.

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A total loss of $1trn in market cap across the Magnificent 7 highlights the dangers of extreme market concentration in just a handful of stocks. The question I am now asking myself is, are we are at the beginning of the unravelling of the biggest bubble in stock market history?

Large language models

I don’t claim to be an expert in large language models but I have for some time become deeply concerned about the path the tech industry finds itself on.

Should you invest £1,000 in Nvidia right now?

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Although there is no way of knowing for sure how much the hyperscalers have invested in Nvidia chips, the accounts of Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft point to it being in the tens of billions of dollars. And what have they got to show for it?

Without trying to sound too cynical, my answer is not a lot.

Every time I use ChatGPT, I am less than impressed with its results. I have yet to talk to anyone who would rely on the answers any generative AI model provides without first fact checking. It’s little wonder that all these models come with a disclaimer.

What about the thorny issue of hallucinations? This happens when a model presents a falsehood as categorically true. What business will want to rely on such flawed technology, particularly when it comes to mission-critical apps?

Lessons from history

It’s easy to discount my criticisms. After all, generative AI is a new technology. Surely, a solution to these problems will come with time. Maybe it will, but that fundamentally misses the point.

The entire industry is selling this technology as the future of AI. Whether DeepSeek succeeds is neither here nor there — such a collective mindset across Silicon Valley is inherently dangerous. I would even go as far as to say that such groupthink poses an existential threat.

History is littered with examples of companies that were at the forefront of the advancement of a new technology, and yet when the race was run were pipped at the post.

One of the most instructive was the 20-year long pioneering innovation battle to produce a commercialised home videotape. The winner there didn’t emerge until JVC produced the VHS standard.

Buy the dip?

My point in using the JVC example, is an attempt to highlight that the battle for AI supremacy will not be run over 100 metres but over a marathon. But too many investors today believe that the race has run, and the riches and the spoils are there to be collected.

As I write this article, on 28 January, Nvidia has recovered some of its loses. This is to be expected. Many would-be investors will view its share price weakness as a buying opportunity. I am not so sure.

The stock is almost certainly heading for a period of heightened volatility. But I still think that far too many investors are totally oblivious to the risks here. ‘Buy the dip’ is so ingrained in people’s psyche, that only an all-out crash will change such a mindset. I certainly won’t be touching the stock.

Like buying £1 for 31p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this Share Advisor pick has a price/book ratio of 0.31. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 31p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 10%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Andrew Mackie has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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