I’ve been thinking a lot about the Diageo (LSE: DGE) share price lately. That’s what happens when I buy a recovery stock that doesn’t recover.
I piled into the FTSE 100 stalwart last January, hoping to take advantage of a dip in its share price after a sales slump in its Latin American and Caribbean markets triggered a profit warning.
As a value investor, I like snapping up out-of-favour companies to benefit when their fortunes recover. Hard experience has taught me this requires patience though, and that means a lot longer than 12 months. So why am I getting itchy?
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Can this ailing FTSE 100 stock get its bite back?
In my darker moments, I think it could be game over for Diageo shares. Obviously, that’s ridiculous. This is a £52bn company with iconic brands like Johnnie Walker, Baileys, and Smirnoff. It also happens to be the proud owner of the world’s most fashionable drink, good old Guinness.
That hasn’t stopped its shares falling 15% over the past year and 36% over three. Can it get its fizz back?
The Latin American problems are dragging on. The slump was partly down to local drinkers downgrading to cheaper brands than the premium ones Diageo now specialises in. But it also suffered inventory issues. Has management lost its edge since the glory days under inspirational CEO Ivan Menezes?
Drinkers in the US, Europe, and China are feeling the pinch. Normally, I’d brush that off as a cyclical issue, saying they’ll feel thirsty soon enough when they have a bit more cash in their pockets.
My concern is that younger people are drinking less alcohol amid wellness trends and health concerns. If this generational shift is a more than a passing trend, Diageo could suffer.
If young people drink less, even us oldies may start to become self-conscious about our own refuelling habits. While Diageo has a great opportunity in its alcohol-free Guinness 0,0, I don’t see this as transferable across its spirits catalogue.
The drinks sector needs a little pick-me-up
President-elect Donald Trump has mooted 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico. That’s a worry for Diageo, as its subsidiaries shipped more than 25m litres of tequila to the US last year, including brands Don Julio and Casamigos.
Given these worries, I’ve even considered selling my Diageo shares, which are worth 12% less than I paid. So what stopped me?
Well, people have been drinking booze for millennia. What are the chances of them stopping on my watch? Also, as the tobacco giants showed, there’s a lot of money to be made in a declining sector. Diageo is a global company, and middle classes in emerging markets are upgrading to premium spirits.
While the yield is a relatively modest 3.36% today, Diageo has a robust policy of hiking shareholder payouts. Let’s see what the chart says.
Chart by TradingView
While I dither, Diageo shares continue to stumble. They look shockingly cheap trading at just 16.9 times earnings. I remember when they traded at 24 or 25 times.
The 20 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have produced a median target of just over 2,705p. If correct, that’s up around 15% from today. Even that doesn’t excite me. I’m clearly feeling glass half-empty towards the stock. I’ll hold, but I won’t buy more.
